NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7024fcd07ec2b6d881c7c189181fb90d7d04c88a8e04987c1f773acd498335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Packers, Ravens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Ravens | 56c | 11,621$6,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,152.73 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ravens | 62c | 9,779$6,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.08 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Packers | 38c | 9,621$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…6786backed Ravens | 66c | 7,079$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 44c | 4,936$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.87 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Packers | 38c | 4,400$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Ravens | 60c | 4,111$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.45 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Packers | 38c | 3,946$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…cbb1backed Packers | 40c | 3,849$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Ravens | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ravens | 62c | 3,000$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Packers | 38c | 2,011$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.76 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Packers | 44c | 1,910$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers | 44c | 1,769$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.44 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Packers | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Ravens | 56c | 1,242$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.48 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Packers | 42c | 963.34$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.81 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Packers | 44c | 937$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 42c | 602.81$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.07 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Packers | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Packers | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +217.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Ravens | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Ravens | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ravens | 62c | 370$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Ravens | 66c | 360$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Packers | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Packers | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Packers | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Packers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Packers | 34c | 240$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ravens | 66c | 221.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Packers | 46c | 219.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Packers | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Ravens | 57c | 199.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Packers | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ravens | 69c | 122.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Ravens | 57c | 120.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Packers | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Packers | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Packers | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Packers | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Packers | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Ravens | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Packers | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Ravens | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Ravens | 62c | 88.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Ravens | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aad…18f4backed Packers | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Packers | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Ravens | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Packers | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Packers | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Packers | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Packers | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Packers | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…353ebacked Packers | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Packers | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Packers | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Packers | 45c | 48.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Packers | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Packers | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Packers | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Ravens | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ravens | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Ravens | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Ravens vs. PackersRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 38.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 61.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.