NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffdccf7c49e5ab07f42bc778d70ad4bf6374cc2a4506f13c8d04f154be942b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 37,007$20,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,960.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 43c | 27,766$11,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,768.29 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 43c | 10,803$4,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,163.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 2,588$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.6 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 59c | 2,027$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Over | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Under | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 55c | 680.59$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.32 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 600$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 488.85$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 463.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 57c | 400$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 54c | 311.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…cce7backed Over | 45c | 219.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…45c3backed Over | 46c | 181.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Under | 51c | 178.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…34c0backed Over | 54c | 155.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 55c | 149.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…add9backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Over | 78c | 81.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Over | 42c | 76.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 30c | 71.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 46c | 56.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 56c | 54.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under | 51c | 46.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…c9a6backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Under | 46c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 25.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…1328backed Over | 52c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Ravens vs. PackersRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 38.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 61.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.