NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840f790abddf71796909f70dcb73f79f9bf74253343d3f3f90c1ca7e1a83fe62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ravens | 44c | 693.66$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.19 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Ravens | 41c | 564.41$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Packers | 61c | 551.28$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.28 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ravens | 77c | 422.79$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Packers | 61c | 420$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Packers | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Packers | 44c | 240$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Packers | 56c | 240$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ravens | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Packers | 57c | 210.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Ravens | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ravens | 43c | 184.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Ravens | 44c | 148.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Packers | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Packers | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Packers | 56c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Ravens | 43c | 114.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed Packers | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Ravens | 38c | 49.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Ravens | 32c | 42.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Packers | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 59c | 35.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Packers | 59c | 33.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…b88dbacked Packers | 57c | 33.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Ravens | 40c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…128bbacked Packers | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Packers | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Ravens vs. PackersRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 38.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 61.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.