NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12cd21d111bacf5a125ddbc049aa19f5e64a6379b03d65c494d74be8cd65e312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks | 56c | 8,998$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,997.65 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed Hornets | 47c | 7,569$3,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,557.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked Bucks | 53c | 7,169$3,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,369.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 45c | 6,291$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 46c | 2,579$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 47c | 1,519$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Bucks | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.9 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 46c | 881.38$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.82 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets | 44c | 837.64$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.56 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 48c | 660$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…e2c5backed Bucks | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bucks | 52c | 494.5$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.36 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hornets | 47c | 398.59$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 53c | 278$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Bucks | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Bucks | 52c | 259.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Bucks | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hornets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Hornets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Hornets | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…d4a4backed Bucks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Bucks | 55c | 182.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Bucks | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bucks | 53c | 126.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 53c | 125.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Bucks | 49c | 121.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Bucks | 53c | 105.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bucks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bucks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab8…437abacked Bucks | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Bucks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…a4fdbacked Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…f398backed Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 46c | 87.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Bucks | 54c | 72.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Bucks | 54c | 72.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Hornets | 50c | 70.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…7347backed Bucks | 53c | 69.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Bucks | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Bucks | 53c | 60.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Bucks | 54c | 53.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Bucks | 54c | 53.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…a2aabacked Bucks | 54c | 53.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a5…5713backed Hornets | 49c | 50.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Bucks | 53c | 48.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Bucks | 54c | 47.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Bucks | 54c | 47.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…abc3backed Hornets | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…00e4backed Bucks | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Bucks | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Bucks | 53c | 44.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Bucks | 54c | 42.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Hornets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Bucks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…5f6cbacked Bucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Hornets | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hornets | 46c | 32.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…28cabacked Bucks | 53c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…9a32backed Bucks | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hornets | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…835bbacked Bucks | 54c | 23.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…a4a4backed Bucks | 54c | 21.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ff…14eebacked Bucks | 54c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Bucks | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Bucks | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists Over 2.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds Over 3.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.