NBA · resolved market
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds Over 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0865070f6b0aba623c519c937b4c1c55b35def714d7669618012ec60b001509b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6c…00b9backed No | 77c | 6,456$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +3,579.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Yes | 6c | 5,113$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Yes | 12c | 4,151$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +381.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 6c | 1,303$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Yes | 17c | 454.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Yes | 10c | 149.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef1…4e46backed Yes | 69c | 83.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds Over 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists Over 2.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.