NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f38df48ac2a1d3e3a1b31065ce5932380ed88b9f7540f9117c12ffb3065ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 4,054$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.33 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Over | 54c | 3,542$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.55 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,421$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 900.93$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.46 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 820.32$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.4 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 192.84$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 53c | 124.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 124.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 47c | 121.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…5f3ebacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 108.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…8098backed Over | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Over | 53c | 93.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 72.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…5d58backed Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd128…c5dfbacked Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Over | 53c | 32.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…6e4abacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…512cbacked Over | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists Over 2.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds Over 3.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.