TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,318,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,375,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,318,539 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 896 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets42c164,945$69,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,764.2287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Bucks57c100,000$57,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,50012147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks59c84,000$49,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,439.9848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hornets19c58,912$10,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,986.781,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Hornets42c57,328$24,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,077.6987451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Hornets42c55,000$23,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,049.967941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Hornets42c50,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,999.963033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks58c49,999$29,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,999.7151350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Hornets42c49,000$20,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,58037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Hornets41c41,900$17,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,178.9817250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bucks58c34,863$20,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,642.431,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hornets41c24,390$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks58c24,118$13,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,225.941,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Hornets42c22,628$9,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,503.7347848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks59c22,034$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,033.976746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks58c21,340$12,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,962.652,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks65c20,220$13,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,134.911,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Hornets41c20,000$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,199.9719751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Hornets42c17,000$7,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,1208939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Bucks58c13,937$8,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,884.5121446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Bucks56c13,874$7,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,063.836051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Hornets41c13,432$5,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5073151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks69c13,215$9,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,042.365,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks69c13,046$9,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,022.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Hornets41c13,000$5,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,349.9535235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Bucks58c11,983$6,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,033.0252460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdec1…28bdbacked Hornets42c11,905$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Hornets42c10,907$4,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,580.9524650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks57c10,808$6,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,608.334,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bucks58c10,340$6,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,322.82,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Bucks58c10,050$5,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,22118045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets41c9,207$3,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,804.7774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets42c9,005$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.934,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks58c8,879$5,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,691.392,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hornets42c8,000$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.9639349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bucks58c6,023$3,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.771,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Bucks59c6,000$3,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.7844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bucks63c5,728$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.9485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Hornets41c5,178$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,09836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Bucks60c5,142$3,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.6715855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Bucks58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bucks58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Bucks58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Bucks59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05016641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6576…6cc5backed Hornets41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0502450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Bucks59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6d…0926backed Hornets28c4,974$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.072352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bucks58c4,755$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.1837944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Hornets47c4,700$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.4812143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Bucks58c4,367$2,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8343568.6%24 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Bucks58c4,260$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.1515945.9%73 W · 86 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Bucks59c4,237$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.2922458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bucks58c4,147$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.5148944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Hornets49c4,075$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.6444654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bucks58c4,000$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.971,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Bucks61c3,754$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.5224151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Bucks68c3,678$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.891752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bucks58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks65c3,344$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.082,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Bucks60c3,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.3317250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bucks59c3,333$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.5376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3b…f822backed Bucks58c3,152$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34d2…ffb6backed Hornets42c3,146$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks58c3,072$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks57c3,000$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.221,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Bucks58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Hornets24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72013625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Hornets41c3,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.531,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Bucks58c2,984$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.2810144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Bucks58c2,913$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.429451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Hornets41c2,905$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19113455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x697d…985dbacked Hornets41c2,900$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1892441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1f…6623backed Bucks58c2,900$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2182445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Bucks58c2,700$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1342937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Bucks58c2,700$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1342070%14 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks58c2,640$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.671,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb6…e09cbacked Hornets42c2,600$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bucks58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Bucks59c2,483$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.1644052.5%231 W · 209 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Hornets52c2,440$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.711750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0409…0da6backed Hornets41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3af…749fbacked Bucks60c2,439$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.61650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Bucks58c2,430$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.671547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Hornets1c2,375$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.578820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets46c2,350$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.533,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00b…517cbacked Bucks44c2,265$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.072638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Hornets41c2,223$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.4420352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets30c2,142$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.853,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Hornets40c2,100$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.9964139%250 W · 391 L+2.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets42c2,097$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.541,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks59c2,087$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.562,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Hornets43c2,055$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.6515348.4%74 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Hornets50c2,025$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.6948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Bucks72c2,000$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.118440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef47…ebb7backed Bucks58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Hornets41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Hornets41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bucks59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.9876249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Bucks58c1,950$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81910837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.