NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3097b9438541525de9f2aed0b078331d7025881886c8ad8d9c469d83deb84d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0352…3292backed Under | 51c | 22,000$11,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,115.13 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 9,030$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 8,065$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 5,554$2,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,766.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over | 50c | 4,094$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 3,997$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.54 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 3,207$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.77 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 3,095$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Over | 53c | 2,388$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.21 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 50c | 2,018$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.85 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 50c | 1,989$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.5 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 1,857$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.14 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.9 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 50c | 1,251$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…c60fbacked Under | 47c | 1,125$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.89 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 1,018$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.25 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Under | 49c | 999.97$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 693.33$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.73 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 50c | 540.86$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.43 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 49c | 506.12$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.12 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 50c | 414$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 351.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 50c | 334$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 312$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 306.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 50c | 298.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.26 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Under | 49c | 254.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 53c | 210$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Over | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 177.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 50c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Under | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 41c | 117.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 52c | 105.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07a5…f761backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 99.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 49c | 88.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Over | 50c | 88.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 42c | 71.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 51c | 69.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 30c | 66.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 50c | 64.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 50c | 62.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 50c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 50c | 49.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Under | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Under | 50c | 39.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 50c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 50c | 24.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 67c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Under | 69c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists Over 2.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds Over 3.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.