TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Clippers, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,724,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,829,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,724,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Clippers41c130,989$53,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,239.7251844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Clippers38c87,247$33,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,422.252,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Clippers42c50,453$21,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,190.3122453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bulls60c50,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,999.9948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Clippers42c49,999$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,999.581,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Bulls57c48,995$27,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,067.9526753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls58c42,942$25,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,907.771,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bulls59c42,471$24,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,509.111,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Clippers42c41,490$17,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,477.671,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Clippers42c34,416$14,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,338.0519150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Bulls59c33,898$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,898.1810252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Bulls60c33,500$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,40060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls56c33,001$18,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,396.3787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Clippers0c31,250$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked Clippers1c30,562$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.524045%18 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Clippers41c30,000$12,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,299.9651350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1278…36cdbacked Clippers41c24,317$9,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,975.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb017…fa4cbacked Bulls60c24,031$14,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,700.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Clippers5c22,369$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.151,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Bulls59c20,730$12,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,499.4816042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Clippers40c20,695$8,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,223.7327424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Bulls57c20,000$11,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,50019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Bulls58c19,200$11,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,06423245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Bulls57c19,158$10,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,225.4440350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Clippers43c18,761$8,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,067.428649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls56c18,590$10,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,145.442,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Clippers42c18,000$7,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,58019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Clippers0c17,323$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.497211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Clippers0c17,240$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Bulls58c15,216$8,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,390.6620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Bulls57c15,137$8,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,508.9148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Clippers43c14,624$6,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,288.3223257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Clippers44c13,446$5,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,902.0728742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Clippers10c12,780$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.7983039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Clippers40c12,510$5,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,005.7177348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls58c12,491$7,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,277.114,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Clippers41c12,460$5,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,108.6919653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Clippers44c10,944$4,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,792.2927758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Clippers43c10,719$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.361,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Clippers40c10,390$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,15636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed Clippers0c10,320$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210842.6%46 W · 62 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Bulls57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…9500backed Clippers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+39.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Clippers0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa827…1adbbacked Clippers41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1002931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Clippers41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Bulls59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.9913249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Clippers5c10,000$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53178445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Clippers42c8,919$3,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,746.342,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Bulls59c8,416$4,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450.7438253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Clippers44c7,980$3,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,511.4128439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bulls59c7,599$4,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.7958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers24c7,248$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bulls59c7,110$4,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.6147751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Bulls59c6,900$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.9713148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Bulls73c6,851$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.887062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Bulls73c6,847$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.6312740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers38c6,835$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.112,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed Clippers2c6,835$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1409346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Clippers12c6,467$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Bulls58c6,119$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.3639958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Clippers43c5,986$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.9818553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Bulls56c5,726$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.4234654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Clippers38c5,409$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.2619350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Clippers41c5,344$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19122459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Clippers1c5,194$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.941,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Clippers24c5,100$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.3650241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Bulls59c5,023$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.526949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Bulls59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Clippers40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Clippers39c4,917$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Bulls51c4,731$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.8538046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Bulls59c4,531$2,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.5219560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Clippers42c4,524$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls59c4,486$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.986,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Bulls59c4,438$2,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.526860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Bulls58c4,320$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.462347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Clippers19c4,267$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.7845838%174 W · 284 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba31…de52backed Clippers1c4,237$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.42190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15bd…3e07backed Bulls73c4,115$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.132665.4%17 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Bulls61c4,071$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.6556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bulls59c4,047$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.2792753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Clippers43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Clippers40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Bulls60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8d…6e40backed Clippers41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Bulls60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6004544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Bulls58c3,909$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.8535251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bulls59c3,850$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.2148944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Clippers40c3,820$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.2430947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…007cbacked Clippers41c3,800$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5581464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Clippers42c3,611$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.7716335.6%58 W · 105 L-12.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers42c3,496$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.173,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Clippers43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50022458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Clippers43c3,358$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.1341954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd2b…7f04backed Bulls56c3,350$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4748348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Bulls59c3,226$1,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.7426048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x495c…1574backed Clippers12c3,200$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.67423%17 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba7…cc9fbacked Bulls59c3,100$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2711533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Clippers42c3,050$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2811,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.