Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33280931e88e08608a8e16303bfe52dc58e9fe65fd26530593076f03ea14ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 8,175$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.39 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed No | 1c | 6,980$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 78c | 4,971$3,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.62 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 28c | 2,163$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.63 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 24c | 1,862$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.43 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Yes | 64c | 1,557$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9db…a30ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,366$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed Yes | 79c | 1,005$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…b7d7backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 18c | 704.45$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 671.66$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.16 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 56c | 428.13$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Yes | 76c | 396.4$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 29c | 350$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 41c | 262.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 78c | 261.69$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 33c | 242.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 187.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 37c | 159.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 29c | 154$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…cca8backed Yes | 67c | 138.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…6c60backed Yes | 78c | 106.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Yes | 35c | 105.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…dbf0backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 32c | 93.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 91.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 77c | 91.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes | 67c | 77.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…fc76backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed No | 68c | 68.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked Yes | 73c | 66.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 70c | 58.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 27c | 56.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 55.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 34c | 53.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…8ae4backed No | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Yes | 74c | 46.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 57c | 46.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 38c | 46.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 76c | 39.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 48c | 32.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Yes | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18bd…221bbacked Yes | 75c | 30.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…27d9backed No | 65c | 20.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…bbb2backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…5ff4backed Yes | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-28?No won
- Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-12-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.