Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Paula Badosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8483b5c9d4126372b694a1ee6b37b448b199dc2b0ccda94cf1fc252e9330e65d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Selekhmetevaof Selekhmeteva, Badosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Badosa | 35c | 9,172$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.28 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Selekhmeteva | 60c | 3,270$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.19 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Selekhmeteva | 49c | 1,504$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.56 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Badosa | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Selekhmeteva | 56c | 1,445$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.15 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Selekhmeteva | 35c | 1,428$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.5 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Badosa | 12c | 1,266$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Badosa | 51c | 1,007$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.6 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Selekhmeteva | 41c | 737.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.8 | 306 | 45.1%138 W · 168 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Badosa | 61c | 732.49$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Badosa | 32c | 662.81$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…0f65backed Badosa | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Selekhmeteva | 72c | 393.72$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Badosa | 27c | 350.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Badosa | 69c | 347.83$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…648ebacked Badosa | 19c | 332.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Selekhmeteva | 60c | 312.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Badosa | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Badosa | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Badosa | 5c | 253.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Selekhmeteva | 60c | 245.77$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Selekhmeteva | 72c | 223.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Selekhmeteva | 22c | 206.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Selekhmeteva | 38c | 206.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Selekhmeteva | 48c | 206$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Badosa | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Badosa | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…f5f4backed Badosa | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…27d9backed Selekhmeteva | 54c | 160.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Badosa | 35c | 159.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Badosa | 50c | 157.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Selekhmeteva | 34c | 146.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Selekhmeteva | 52c | 144.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…820abacked Selekhmeteva | 22c | 115.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Badosa | 76c | 104.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Badosa | 36c | 103.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Selekhmeteva | 52c | 88.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Badosa | 61c | 81.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Badosa | 23c | 78.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Badosa | 78c | 64.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…302bbacked Badosa | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Badosa | 21c | 53.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Selekhmeteva | 44c | 52.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Badosa | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Selekhmeteva | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Selekhmeteva | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bd…2ae0backed Badosa | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Selekhmeteva | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Selekhmeteva | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14bd…1c4cbacked Badosa | 52c | 44.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Badosa | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Badosa | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…8179backed Badosa | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed96backed Badosa | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Badosa | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Badosa | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…ebeabacked Badosa | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…2124backed Selekhmeteva | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…149dbacked Badosa | 78c | 17.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.