TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c79…8b69

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: IPO, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 51 out of 100; worst AI at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT6150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$186.51
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchovabacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.92
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$194.12
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+25%+$50
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norriebacked Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Australian Open Women's: Iva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolinibacked Paolini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Australian Open Women's: Naomi Osaka vs Sorana Cirsteabacked Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$56.25
Australian Open Women's: Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatekbacked Bouzkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Australian Open Women's: Elise Mertens vs Moyuka Uchijimabacked Uchijima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Australian Open Women's: Katerina Siniakova vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$66.67
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Jelena Ostapenkobacked Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+76.2%+$76.16
Australian Open Women's: Janice Tjen vs Karolina Pliskovabacked Pliskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$146.9
Australian Open Women's: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Paula Badosabacked Badosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Australian Open Women's: Ashlyn Krueger vs Madison Keysbacked Keys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+25%+$50
Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Potapova vs Emma Raducanubacked Raducanu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Australian Open Women's: Yulia Putintseva vs Elsa Jacquemotbacked Jacquemot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergsbacked Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Australian Open Men's: Grigor Dimitrov vs Tomas Machacbacked Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+78.6%+$78.57
Australian Open Men's: Vit Kopriva vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Australian Open Men's: Christopher O'Connell vs Nishesh Basavareddybacked Basavareddy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+69.7%+$69.69
Australian Open Men's: Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirribacked Spizzirri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+170.3%+$170.27
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbertbacked Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Australian Open Men's: Martin Damm vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+44.9%+$44.93
Australian Open Men's: Brandon Nakashima vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$103.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.