Boxing · resolved market
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a773e86b71a639971176f31367c25bcf3f772a6765ad78ccbdee895178ed58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inoueof Inoue, Nakatani
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Inoue | 79c | 13,947$11,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…a9d6backed Nakatani | 12c | 11,976$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…9e7cbacked Nakatani | 21c | 7,554$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Nakatani | 8c | 6,684$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.32 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…76e0backed Nakatani | 17c | 5,317$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…1a81backed Nakatani | 22c | 2,937$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakatani | 19c | 2,917$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a61…02d2backed Nakatani | 0c | 2,906$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Nakatani | 16c | 2,710$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Nakatani | 6c | 2,148$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Nakatani | 20c | 2,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nakatani | 13c | 1,809$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Nakatani | 5c | 1,700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…0490backed Nakatani | 21c | 930.48$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…b265backed Nakatani | 19c | 910$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Nakatani | 18c | 581.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Nakatani | 16c | 507$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…fc36backed Nakatani | 20c | 500.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Nakatani | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659e…7f46backed Nakatani | 8c | 474$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…5a89backed Inoue | 76c | 435.37$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…614bbacked Nakatani | 20c | 414.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…025abacked Nakatani | 19c | 407.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc77…5a6bbacked Nakatani | 20c | 370.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…6a46backed Nakatani | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…aa06backed Nakatani | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…55fcbacked Nakatani | 20c | 244.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…7711backed Nakatani | 19c | 224.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…40d1backed Nakatani | 19c | 175.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Nakatani | 20c | 153.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…0339backed Nakatani | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…b6b9backed Nakatani | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…b746backed Nakatani | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Nakatani | 21c | 111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…743dbacked Nakatani | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…3a6cbacked Nakatani | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…bb75backed Nakatani | 19c | 94.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Nakatani | 18c | 82.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…f1f4backed Nakatani | 20c | 50.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…773abacked Nakatani | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.