Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Martin Damm vs Valentin Vacherot
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf3e9ca17c32b87c5ca60b89ce9c4045c73ba9c6bb73bdd6b146d549c7cb4f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Damm, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Damm | 32c | 9,982$3,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.91 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Vacherot | 72c | 7,000$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…f8bfbacked Damm | 35c | 5,000$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Vacherot | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.98 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Damm | 7c | 3,842$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Damm | 33c | 3,476$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.2 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Damm | 31c | 3,317$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.23 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Damm | 29c | 2,565$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…f25ebacked Vacherot | 68c | 2,396$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.56 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Vacherot | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Damm | 33c | 1,598$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.7 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…82fcbacked Vacherot | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Damm | 18c | 1,237$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.39 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Damm | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Damm | 31c | 1,102$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.61 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Damm | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Vacherot | 67c | 911.94$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.94 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Damm | 33c | 799.97$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Damm | 11c | 778.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…5466backed Damm | 25c | 769.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…b596backed Vacherot | 67c | 718.3$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Vacherot | 66c | 610$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Damm | 15c | 590.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Vacherot | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Vacherot | 67c | 558.67$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.36 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Damm | 21c | 512.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Damm | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Vacherot | 66c | 453.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…0437backed Vacherot | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Damm | 34c | 334.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Damm | 4c | 298.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Damm | 34c | 280.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Damm | 33c | 275.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Damm | 33c | 227$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Damm | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Damm | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Vacherot | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…33ddbacked Vacherot | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 212 | 63.7%135 W · 77 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Damm | 7c | 150.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Vacherot | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Damm | 23c | 148.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Vacherot | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fdf6backed Damm | 33c | 145$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Vacherot | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Vacherot | 66c | 113.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Damm | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Vacherot | 66c | 90.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Vacherot | 67c | 88.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Vacherot | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Vacherot | 77c | 78.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Vacherot | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…dea9backed Vacherot | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Vacherot | 69c | 72.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Damm | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Damm | 33c | 68.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Vacherot | 67c | 62.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…ea4abacked Damm | 34c | 60.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Vacherot | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…2994backed Vacherot | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Vacherot | 67c | 56.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Vacherot | 65c | 50.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Damm | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Damm | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…3b54backed Damm | 33c | 45.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Damm | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vacherot | 80c | 31.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…2b7ebacked Damm | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…6309backed Vacherot | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed Vacherot | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Martin Damm vs Valentin Vacherotthis page
- Damm vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Damm (+1.5)Vacherot won
- Set Handicap: Vacherot (-2.5) vs Damm (+2.5)Vacherot won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.