TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Naomi Osaka vs Sorana Cirstea

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Osakaof Osaka, Cirstea
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed Osaka61c23,546$14,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,182.762646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cirstea39c16,950$6,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,610.531332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Osaka70c9,070$6,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750.264148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Cirstea39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9503537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cirstea39c4,999$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.8517823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cirstea38c4,373$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.1211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cirstea33c4,281$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.942,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Osaka77c3,775$2,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.7814343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Osaka67c3,521$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.228,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Osaka54c3,100$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42657645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Cirstea36c2,240$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cirstea29c2,203$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.87,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed Osaka70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9713554.8%74 W · 61 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Cirstea39c1,300$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5071,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Cirstea21c1,270$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.219023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Cirstea41c1,250$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.55036%18 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e9…e33ebacked Cirstea28c1,134$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.832030%6 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+166%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Cirstea28c1,071$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cirstea38c1,046$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.342,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Osaka78c1,046$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.059348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Cirstea32c1,039$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.172,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Cirstea24c999$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7637230.4%113 W · 259 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Osaka63c994$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.78977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Osaka62c967.56$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.568060%48 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Osaka59c907$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.8776140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Cirstea31c888.92$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.71,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Cirstea38c701.44$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.449546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Cirstea29c615.35$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3663247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Osaka61c608.77$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7754138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5804…dc41backed Osaka76c544$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.726553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Osaka61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19514663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea1…9569backed Osaka62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.874647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Cirstea24c420.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Cirstea52c411.81$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5530645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Cirstea38c409.4$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.577146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Osaka62c409.32$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.339955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Osaka60c399.99$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15843042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Osaka51c396.83$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4559151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Osaka63c396.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8358753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5995…3385backed Cirstea28c386.92$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Osaka61c356.31$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9612147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Cirstea29c332.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969744.3%43 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed Cirstea31c330.68$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.514122%9 W · 32 L-11.1wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-50.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Osaka62c330$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.41,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Osaka69c316$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.965232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Osaka48c314.28$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2869350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cirstea34c309.3$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.037,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Osaka60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12098240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac1…c3e1backed Cirstea16c300$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476839.7%27 W · 41 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+2.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Cirstea46c295.24$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8147057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Osaka73c275.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.292,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Osaka79c272.56$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5638652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…fd97backed Cirstea20c271.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Cirstea27c261.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.473935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Cirstea30c260.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2712631%39 W · 87 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cirstea23c254.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.113,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Cirstea39c253.85$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Cirstea30c220.38$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7510827.8%30 W · 78 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f93…3e77backed Osaka74c217.45$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+79.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4338…648ebacked Cirstea36c209.55$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.121154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc391…6cc8backed Cirstea39c207.64$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.425149%25 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Cirstea30c201.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Osaka63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7428543.5%124 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Osaka42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.991,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Osaka79c199.89$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0418663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed Cirstea30c178.37$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.241717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick46cpaid-71.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Osaka68c177.16$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.162369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Osaka69c174.01$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9122236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db1…78c5backed Osaka62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+299.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cc…769cbacked Cirstea25c159.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c79…8b69backed Osaka64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.256150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c37…3fd1backed Osaka58c153.57$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.573562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Cirstea39c152.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.424448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d1d…4773backed Osaka62c140.23$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.29850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca8…db1fbacked Cirstea22c135.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012344.7%55 W · 68 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Cirstea39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Cirstea40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016158.4%94 W · 67 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…dc37backed Cirstea40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5baf…3e56backed Cirstea41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5065840.9%269 W · 389 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Cirstea26c119.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3122744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked Osaka62c117.74$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7415751.6%81 W · 76 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Cirstea30c108.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.242437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Osaka62c101.13$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4318957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Cirstea27c97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1928726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Osaka60c95.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8149142.8%210 W · 281 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Cirstea45c93.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4288446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…4432backed Cirstea39c90$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.15435.2%19 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Cirstea30c80.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0516144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88e…636cbacked Osaka62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.42152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Osaka70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4374961.8%463 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Cirstea35c63.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7811122.5%25 W · 86 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x56fe…9dd5backed Cirstea40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe563…0cf5backed Cirstea40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Osaka70c61.96$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5921949.3%108 W · 111 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Cirstea38c53.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.377,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Cirstea33c52.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2814947.7%71 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Osaka62c52.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Cirstea31c51.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631339.9%125 W · 188 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Cirstea39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8960240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Cirstea41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.