Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f389b2c24db3a8bb96dc56383be2fadbb000e5959647e9b4c658a3e7b61c2a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Bouzkova, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bouzkova | 9c | 10,206$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.54 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bouzkova | 10c | 4,922$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.04 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bouzkova | 0c | 4,523$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Bouzkova | 9c | 4,220$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bouzkova | 9c | 2,798$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.78 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…e888backed Bouzkova | 8c | 2,000$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bouzkova | 10c | 1,652$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Bouzkova | 11c | 1,550$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bouzkova | 10c | 1,475$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bouzkova | 12c | 1,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bouzkova | 3c | 1,266$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bouzkova | 3c | 1,263$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Bouzkova | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bouzkova | 11c | 1,057$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Bouzkova | 10c | 1,052$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Bouzkova | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bouzkova | 10c | 999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d23…8776backed Bouzkova | 11c | 890$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bouzkova | 6c | 769.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Bouzkova | 7c | 613.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Bouzkova | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Bouzkova | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Bouzkova | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Bouzkova | 11c | 448.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Bouzkova | 12c | 393.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Bouzkova | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bouzkova | 12c | 341$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Bouzkova | 10c | 337.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +201%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Bouzkova | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Bouzkova | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…9d78backed Bouzkova | 10c | 255.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Bouzkova | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…e904backed Bouzkova | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Bouzkova | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Bouzkova | 6c | 192$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Bouzkova | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…d4b0backed Bouzkova | 14c | 115.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bouzkova | 12c | 104.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bouzkova | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatekthis page
- Bouzkova vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5)Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.