Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffa122e7d2a1703aed4a6cbb8bd3e38c67456a26ed63d0c3749093248d969cf

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $91,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,044 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	48c	13,173$6,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,847.21	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	7,451$3,738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,713.1	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89b0…9d9fbacked Over	51c	6,465$3,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,297	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed07…886abacked Under	40c	5,332$2,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,199.4	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over	50c	3,600$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	51c	3,563$1,817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,817.13	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Over	51c	3,394$1,743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,743	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	49c	3,017$1,491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,525.96	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8283…26dabacked Over	51c	2,731$1,393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,393	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under	50c	2,445$1,223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,222.5	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	52c	2,093$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080.37	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under	48c	1,600$776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$823.99	144	47.2%68 W · 76 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	56c	1,480$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.71	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Over	51c	1,449$739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over	48c	1,293$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.66	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	382	53.9%206 W · 176 L	+21.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	44c	708.09$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.62	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over	49c	683.02$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.68	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Under	50c	599.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.99	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under	50c	599.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.99	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under	51c	554$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.46	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over	55c	545.44$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.39	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	61c	494.62$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	74	56.8%42 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6593…9d0ebacked Under	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	20	55%11 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Over	61c	409.84$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0e…2b59backed Under	51c	399.97$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.99	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ee…1943backed Under	48c	399.46$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.72	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under	47c	372.99$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.68	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	50c	363.6$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.17	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad3…a392backed Over	53c	343.4$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	48c	329.99$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.14	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under	50c	300$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	111	52.3%58 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	21c	273$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.48	291	42.3%123 W · 168 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0052…4d9ebacked Over	58c	231.8$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.73	58	72.4%42 W · 16 L	+10.9wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+39%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7e66…53dfbacked Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	84	54.8%46 W · 38 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2b…4c50backed Under	65c	200$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed Under	40c	200$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.4	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Over	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	50c	166.6$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.63	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	57c	153.01$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.08	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	42c	131.45$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.85	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Under	46c	128$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.12	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed Under	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed Over	51c	118.58$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	38c	106.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	46c	105.77$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Over	52c	104.67$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.03	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+55.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Under	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	92	30.4%28 W · 64 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	57c	96.49$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	214	43.9%94 W · 120 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	55c	92.88$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.51	159	38.4%61 W · 98 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	26c	82.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b89…3380backed Over	37c	81.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cf2…6373backed Under	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Under	52c	71.23$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.19	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	51c	69.95$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.67	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	40c	67$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.16	92	46.7%43 W · 49 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	44c	54.67$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	64c	53.22$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…630fbacked Under	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	61c	48.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	264	43.9%116 W · 148 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Under	49c	44.61$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.75	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29e…bc77backed Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d0…27d9backed Over	55c	40.59$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	61c	35.89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	274	50.7%139 W · 135 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Under	77c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b91…27dcbacked Over	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e7…51d6backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	66	51.5%34 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Over	71c	28.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under	48c	27.39$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.24	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	49c	27.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	156	51.3%80 W · 76 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Over	52c	25.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Over	51c	25.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over	53c	25.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-38%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Over	52c	20.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x128f…47afbacked Over	70c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 3.5this page
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 1.5Over won
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 2.5Over won
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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