Champions League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dce28e2bda0d366312e9553771326ab39209fe34fc7dca2beec27992c4f6026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 67c | 20,000$13,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,652.41 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 35c | 18,580$6,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,484.16 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 58c | 4,783$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 1,681$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.54 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 68c | 1,326$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.32 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 31c | 1,302$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.54 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…eb0cbacked Under | 68c | 599.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.3 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 68c | 599.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.3 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 68c | 559.42$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.78 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 515.81$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.83 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 513.5$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.67 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 446.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Under | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 32c | 349.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 330.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 31c | 227.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Under | 67c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Under | 69c | 149.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 36c | 135.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…4c50backed Under | 71c | 125.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 32c | 84.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 36c | 73.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 35c | 66.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 69c | 66.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 32c | 63.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 70c | 52.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…df87backed Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 48.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 61c | 34.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 80c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.