Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Kamil Majchrzak vs Fabian Marozsan

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef0d47810ca6c30e0790af5f07b8083a00fdcdbd74c85e7ce9820ff2721eafb

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Marozsanof Majchrzak, Marozsan
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,852 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd289…079fbacked Marozsan	61c	8,197$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,196.72	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Majchrzak	39c	7,366$2,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,872.55	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Majchrzak	7c	6,488$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.18	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Marozsan	60c	5,000$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	430	51.2%220 W · 210 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Majchrzak	1c	4,391$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Majchrzak	40c	4,345$1,726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,725.76	2,375	51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L	+8.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Majchrzak	24c	4,210$1,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.37	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Majchrzak	35c	4,076$1,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.72	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Marozsan	60c	3,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Majchrzak	40c	1,596$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.4	313	32.3%101 W · 212 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Majchrzak	40c	1,247$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.93	303	39.3%119 W · 184 L	+14.2wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Majchrzak	41c	1,209$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.73	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	-5.4wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Majchrzak	40c	1,140$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456	99	49.5%49 W · 50 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Majchrzak	6c	699.89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-80%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Majchrzak	22c	667$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.08	3,072	44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L	-30.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Majchrzak	35c	594$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.82	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Majchrzak	9c	581.93$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1,276	30.4%388 W · 888 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Marozsan	77c	573.75$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.91	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Majchrzak	26c	562.11$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.04	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba4f…7ecebacked Marozsan	60c	511.17$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.47	81	59.3%48 W · 33 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Marozsan	60c	500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	632	47.6%301 W · 331 L	-15.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Marozsan	61c	491.8$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.8	541	38.1%206 W · 335 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Majchrzak	44c	430.31$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.16	257	22.2%57 W · 200 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Majchrzak	41c	401.4$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	982	40.1%394 W · 588 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb8…5466backed Marozsan	60c	383.33$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.33	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9280…99b4backed Majchrzak	32c	378$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.18	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Majchrzak	24c	354.98$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.13	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Majchrzak	9c	323.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	2,343	51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L	+95.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Marozsan	63c	315.75$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.75	360	38.9%140 W · 220 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Majchrzak	40c	255$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	254	28%71 W · 183 L	-13.4wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Majchrzak	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked Majchrzak	37c	209$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.63	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Marozsan	60c	208.33$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.33	161	58.4%94 W · 67 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Marozsan	62c	200.97$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.19	102	47.1%48 W · 54 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Majchrzak	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	318	19.2%61 W · 257 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Majchrzak	6c	199.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	78	3.8%3 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Majchrzak	40c	196.88$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.75	583	59.2%345 W · 238 L	-8.3wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Marozsan	60c	191.55$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.62	121	54.5%66 W · 55 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked Majchrzak	12c	187.18$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Majchrzak	41c	182.93$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Marozsan	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2c…4568backed Marozsan	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-4.4wins	-0.22per pick	52cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f78…bbe8backed Majchrzak	41c	146.34$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…dc37backed Marozsan	60c	144.38$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.75	106	54.7%58 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Marozsan	61c	131.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.15	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Marozsan	61c	131.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.15	398	50%199 W · 199 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Majchrzak	40c	117$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Marozsan	65c	115.53$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.56	262	44.7%117 W · 145 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Majchrzak	41c	106.37$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	163	40.5%66 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Marozsan	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe563…0cf5backed Marozsan	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Marozsan	60c	65.33$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.13	364	64.3%234 W · 130 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Marozsan	61c	63.93$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.93	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…3072backed Marozsan	61c	61.67$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.05	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+32%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e28…df76backed Marozsan	60c	60$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Marozsan	75c	56.03$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.16	111	22.5%25 W · 86 L	-16.1wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1c89…2db9backed Marozsan	61c	55.52$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.65	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca3e…d6d2backed Marozsan	61c	53.41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.83	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Majchrzak	40c	50.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	530	58.1%308 W · 222 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Marozsan	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	499	55.1%275 W · 224 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3652…e63cbacked Marozsan	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Majchrzak	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Marozsan	61c	49.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.18	884	46.8%414 W · 470 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe70f…d5d5backed Marozsan	61c	49.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.18	29	86.2%25 W · 4 L	+5.2wins	+0.18per pick	68cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c9e…ae86backed Marozsan	61c	43.52$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.97	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Marozsan	62c	40.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.29	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Marozsan	60c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	100	59%59 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Majchrzak	36c	33.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	314	34.4%108 W · 206 L	-25.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Marozsan	63c	32.98$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	857	42.8%367 W · 490 L	-23.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Marozsan	62c	32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Majchrzak	40c	26.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	222	58.1%129 W · 93 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Majchrzak	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8e…0ec1backed Marozsan	60c	22.97$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.19	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea7…b987backed Marozsan	66c	21.69$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…a609backed Marozsan	60c	19.97$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.99	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x969d…6309backed Marozsan	60c	19.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.7	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	71cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d0…27d9backed Marozsan	75c	16.47$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.05	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Australian Open Men's: Kamil Majchrzak vs Fabian Marozsanthis page
Majchrzak vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 36.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Australian Open Men's: Kamil Majchrzak vs Fabian Marozsan

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event