TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars (Game Eliminator)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hobart Hurricanesof Hobart Hurricanes, Melbourne Stars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe72b…b0a0backed Hobart Hurricanes48c16,170$7,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,396.478742.5%37 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+209.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e02…d70abacked Melbourne Stars52c14,004$7,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,279.4336445.6%166 W · 198 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Hobart Hurricanes51c4,417$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.052850%14 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Melbourne Stars36c4,181$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.2533042.4%140 W · 190 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Melbourne Stars47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88011445.6%52 W · 62 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed Melbourne Stars1c3,810$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Melbourne Stars56c2,988$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.182015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Melbourne Stars51c2,919$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.0431543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Hobart Hurricanes69c2,530$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.51683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+88.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hobart Hurricanes70c2,508$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.671553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Hobart Hurricanes66c2,431$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.552454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f50…b9c8backed Melbourne Stars19c2,401$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.032437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69b…7b0cbacked Hobart Hurricanes62c2,067$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.4722552.4%118 W · 107 L+20.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Melbourne Stars26c2,000$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.0110953.2%58 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3d…4841backed Melbourne Stars27c1,880$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.7715335.3%54 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Melbourne Stars61c1,748$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.1713227.3%36 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…dd30backed Melbourne Stars56c1,613$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.256344.4%28 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Melbourne Stars53c1,577$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.2376351.6%394 W · 369 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Melbourne Stars55c1,323$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.853537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf17e…0bd6backed Melbourne Stars54c1,142$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.631060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d1…7d7dbacked Hobart Hurricanes47c1,072$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.2832846.3%152 W · 176 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9258…2676backed Hobart Hurricanes45c1,031$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.691030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Melbourne Stars57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57027054.4%147 W · 123 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5535…81b4backed Hobart Hurricanes43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Melbourne Stars48c860.76$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.1628749.5%142 W · 145 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…dd64backed Melbourne Stars38c799.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009849%48 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Hobart Hurricanes42c795.38$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.519851%50 W · 48 L-9.1wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Hobart Hurricanes78c762.04$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.111839.8%47 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Melbourne Stars32c667.09$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.999128.6%26 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Hobart Hurricanes51c647.55$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.551154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0646…ad17backed Melbourne Stars10c578$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2632415.7%51 W · 273 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Melbourne Stars13c499.1$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.546521.5%14 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Melbourne Stars49c498$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0267931.4%213 W · 466 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…993dbacked Melbourne Stars58c494.77$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28611058.2%64 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Melbourne Stars63c450$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.513151.9%68 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Melbourne Stars56c443.92$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6514852%77 W · 71 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Hobart Hurricanes54c330.45$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.177643.4%33 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Hobart Hurricanes49c328.31$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.362030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…be65backed Melbourne Stars25c299.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x296e…f5cfbacked Melbourne Stars30c289.74$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.23825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Hobart Hurricanes49c287.52$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+321.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Hobart Hurricanes51c278.43$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.438860.2%53 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x824f…c458backed Melbourne Stars20c276$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Hobart Hurricanes51c232.42$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.255749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…1cc3backed Melbourne Stars32c223.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9426930.5%82 W · 187 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0d…ca21backed Melbourne Stars19c210.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020342.4%86 W · 117 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1599…a8b6backed Hobart Hurricanes51c209.97$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7932337.2%120 W · 203 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf609…1f8abacked Melbourne Stars57c206.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.89757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dca…c48dbacked Melbourne Stars45c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3329932.4%97 W · 202 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c01…d612backed Melbourne Stars53c199.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b9…ba86backed Melbourne Stars50c199.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Hobart Hurricanes43c180.3$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7717444.8%78 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Hobart Hurricanes45c173.64$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.512842.2%54 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d0…27d9backed Melbourne Stars38c172.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3829…ecffbacked Melbourne Stars20c138.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.114223.8%10 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb207…c751backed Melbourne Stars67c135.12$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.177349.3%36 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad2…fb00backed Melbourne Stars15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hobart Hurricanes70c125.42$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b6…c475backed Melbourne Stars50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Melbourne Stars57c105.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.291233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f69…fdfbbacked Hobart Hurricanes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc7…268dbacked Melbourne Stars50c100.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Melbourne Stars46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464537.8%17 W · 28 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Melbourne Stars33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.812147.1%57 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cd…d809backed Hobart Hurricanes51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.049661.5%59 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Hobart Hurricanes51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a8…30a1backed Hobart Hurricanes36c83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.123852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8a…4b6cbacked Hobart Hurricanes49c79.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.59683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…8470backed Melbourne Stars51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…3374backed Hobart Hurricanes51c67.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.43520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-60.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa662…4823backed Melbourne Stars32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010740.2%43 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e0…3878backed Hobart Hurricanes52c56.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.073452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef46…f872backed Melbourne Stars60c52.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4615451.3%79 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e44…53d0backed Melbourne Stars54c50.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275534.5%19 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa596…8d92backed Melbourne Stars28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Melbourne Stars49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.517642%74 W · 102 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d8…11babacked Hobart Hurricanes39c46.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2512634.1%43 W · 83 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Melbourne Stars26c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.093698.7%32 W · 337 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbb…7038backed Hobart Hurricanes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.458137%30 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Hobart Hurricanes48c41.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Melbourne Stars48c41.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.925332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec70…e529backed Melbourne Stars51c41.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.15135.3%18 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e7a…5af8backed Melbourne Stars46c41.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d05…de5abacked Melbourne Stars61c41.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b0…69cabacked Melbourne Stars35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144835.4%17 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f74…d127backed Melbourne Stars25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Hobart Hurricanes55c37.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Hobart Hurricanes49c35.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Hobart Hurricanes45c34.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.643625%9 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Hobart Hurricanes47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.914226.2%11 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe99b…d599backed Melbourne Stars33c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020251.5%104 W · 98 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5713…a086backed Melbourne Stars38c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59048.9%44 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b6…42ddbacked Melbourne Stars62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a18…ba41backed Hobart Hurricanes38c28.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.957553.3%40 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0d…6c62backed Hobart Hurricanes39c28.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.387554.7%41 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1282…408fbacked Hobart Hurricanes49c26.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed Hobart Hurricanes47c25.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534717%8 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x894b…93ccbacked Hobart Hurricanes49c24.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Hobart Hurricanes80c18.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90bb…1bdbbacked Hobart Hurricanes79c17.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.