TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Musettiof Musetti, Sonego
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Sonego28c19,201$5,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,376.3176140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb50…be06backed Musetti72c15,537$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,337.071050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Musetti72c14,761$10,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.72259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sonego14c12,509$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.478,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf691…ef99backed Musetti75c6,750$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.681163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Sonego26c5,435$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.873537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Musetti71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.9943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Sonego28c4,535$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.12,30451.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L+10.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sonego26c4,188$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.927,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Sonego28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1208142%34 W · 47 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Musetti72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Sonego28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56037540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Sonego30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9912147.1%57 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sonego7c1,991$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.582,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Musetti71c1,802$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonego28c1,763$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.037,71047.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Sonego29c1,730$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.731332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x446e…0dbcbacked Musetti74c1,710$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sonego29c1,577$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.331,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Musetti70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45092655.9%518 W · 408 L+25.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Musetti72c1,425$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39910752.3%56 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Musetti75c1,330$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3713844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sonego25c1,163$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.751,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sonego24c1,157$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.71,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonego29c1,156$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.322,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Sonego23c1,152$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.219023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Sonego28c1,095$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.631,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Musetti74c1,068$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.578964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…5f3fbacked Sonego28c1,013$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sonego28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28027944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Sonego24c938.29$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.592,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sonego9c930.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.411,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sonego22c902.3$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.432,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Sonego22c794.91$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.111,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Sonego14c774.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.57041.4%29 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Sonego7c616$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.722,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Musetti72c592.61$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.937462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Musetti72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14014663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749f…714bbacked Musetti73c494.48$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4810562.9%66 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Sonego4c450$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Sonego28c428.57$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Musetti71c421.52$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2478052.7%411 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca5…a81dbacked Musetti72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671866.7%12 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Sonego29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Sonego29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Sonego29c326$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5438048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Musetti71c308.26$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.92152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Musetti76c307.49$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3947242.6%201 W · 271 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sonego18c303.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.853,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Sonego26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7812033.3%40 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…30fabacked Musetti71c283.22$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.411040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Musetti72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781,83648.4%889 W · 947 L-32.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Musetti72c267$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.763857.9%22 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Sonego27c244.96$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.147146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Sonego18c238.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.092,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Sonego17c235.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4811122.5%25 W · 86 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xba4f…7ecebacked Musetti72c208.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.338159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Musetti73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5428042.9%120 W · 160 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Sonego25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef5…46e0backed Musetti72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…6e84backed Musetti76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Sonego5c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.97783.8%3 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2393…8535backed Musetti71c180.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.622176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Musetti71c159$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.111478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Sonego7c156.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69934.3%4 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Musetti70c153.81$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.145554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e8…7102backed Musetti78c151.96$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.241872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Sonego7c148.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321565.8%9 W · 147 L-32.4wins-0.21per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x795f…4ec5backed Musetti72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa60…9b86backed Musetti73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.994276.2%32 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e72…b2febacked Musetti74c136.3$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.445360.4%32 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Musetti69c136.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1911650.9%59 W · 57 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…5bc2backed Musetti74c136$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.364245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd73e…e83abacked Musetti77c130.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Sonego30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3358753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf527…bbadbacked Musetti70c105$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Musetti72c102.15$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Musetti73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2713658.8%80 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…87d2backed Musetti71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295369.8%37 W · 16 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Sonego28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2818247.3%86 W · 96 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Musetti72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2818863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Musetti73c95.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8939850%199 W · 199 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sonego22c92.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6788455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Sonego28c87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5128139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fa…cecfbacked Musetti70c85.8$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.742065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Musetti74c83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.583935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…4432backed Musetti72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45435.2%19 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…5988backed Sonego27c79.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Sonego27c75.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3960240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5594…06ebbacked Sonego28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Sonego28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.618241.8%76 W · 106 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74d…734cbacked Musetti72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.928462.3%177 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee4…4b3ebacked Sonego29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.013444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9004…1d2cbacked Sonego29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021455.1%118 W · 96 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ace…b219backed Sonego29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012463.7%79 W · 45 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c37…9b8cbacked Musetti74c68.92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.926050%30 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85a9…bb66backed Musetti73c68.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.517170.4%50 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Musetti73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…eda7backed Musetti75c66.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4341846.2%193 W · 225 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce0…beaebacked Sonego28c65.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.