TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2393…8535

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
27
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
0

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 50.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Taylor Fritzbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$42.24
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$45.02
Rotterdam Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+34.3%+$37.24
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Kordabacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+60.6%+$45.4
Rotterdam Open: Ugo Humbert vs Christopher O'Connellbacked Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+25%+$8.69
Dallas Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ben Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+25%+$9.66
Rotterdam Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.88
Argentina Open: Tomas Barrios vs Luciano Darderibacked Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$8.36
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14.31
Rotterdam Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jaume Munarbacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$10.96
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+66.7%+$25.41
Argentina Open: Vit Kopriva vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Berrettini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$38.08
Dallas Open: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.53
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marcos Gironbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+39.6%+$36.95
Dallas Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Ben Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+25%+$10.26
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$40.46
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machacbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+58.7%+$22.59
Australian Open Men's: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+43.7%+$39.39
Australian Open Women's: Naomi Osaka vs Sorana Cirsteabacked Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+32.1%+$11.78
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonegobacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.1%+$51.62
All 21 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+26.2%+$14.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.