TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rotterdam Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auger-Aliassimeof Medjedovic, Auger-Aliassime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Medjedovic22c30,782$6,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,772.176140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Medjedovic14c24,023$3,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,44328444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Medjedovic11c16,070$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.144,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Auger-Aliassime79c15,198$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.192286.4%19 W · 3 L+6.4wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+50.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Medjedovic21c14,225$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.932138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Medjedovic5c13,376$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.861,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eae…5095backed Auger-Aliassime78c12,821$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.511030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Medjedovic7c10,112$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.762,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Auger-Aliassime78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2006552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Medjedovic16c6,118$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98324438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Medjedovic21c5,609$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.8676146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Medjedovic5c4,901$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.5412313.8%17 W · 106 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Medjedovic22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88012147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a39…9e71backed Auger-Aliassime78c2,996$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.841070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a3…9a3bbacked Auger-Aliassime79c2,911$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Medjedovic10c2,812$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28011123.4%26 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xade7…6a55backed Auger-Aliassime80c2,787$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.13658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Auger-Aliassime78c2,632$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.113934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Auger-Aliassime79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.6518756.1%105 W · 82 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dff…fe35backed Auger-Aliassime77c2,330$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Auger-Aliassime78c2,262$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.6620257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Medjedovic9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011215.2%17 W · 95 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb62f…6836backed Medjedovic1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208530.6%26 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Medjedovic12c1,766$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.872,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040d…83e0backed Medjedovic23c1,700$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Medjedovic11c1,649$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0124229.8%72 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Medjedovic7c1,578$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112525.8%3 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Auger-Aliassime78c1,520$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.493055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9963…32e4backed Medjedovic21c1,505$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.823036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Medjedovic9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13516133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Auger-Aliassime77c1,300$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29920653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Medjedovic23c1,141$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.51735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Medjedovic22c1,100$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.81,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Medjedovic10c1,050$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.971,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Auger-Aliassime77c624.29$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4718863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Medjedovic23c606.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4123126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Medjedovic24c531$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9578152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Medjedovic9c530.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.387,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Auger-Aliassime78c524.18$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3225764.6%166 W · 91 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Medjedovic10c523$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.397046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4526…783ebacked Medjedovic10c505$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Medjedovic12c505$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Medjedovic10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x600f…a8aabacked Auger-Aliassime79c457.13$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Medjedovic11c454$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.941,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Auger-Aliassime78c437.18$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.182774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Medjedovic23c429.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013450.7%68 W · 66 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Medjedovic10c408$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.021,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Medjedovic7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.794599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Medjedovic23c349.16$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1116340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53fa…1a66backed Auger-Aliassime78c314.1$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.13275%24 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Medjedovic23c311$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.531,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Auger-Aliassime77c308.64$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9938348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Auger-Aliassime77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.859165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Auger-Aliassime79c259.18$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1831153.1%165 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Medjedovic17c256.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.722,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8713…4007backed Auger-Aliassime78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.414269%29 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Medjedovic20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Auger-Aliassime76c248.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5272452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Medjedovic24c221$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.035547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Medjedovic23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025950.2%130 W · 129 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Medjedovic19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Auger-Aliassime78c205.13$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1319466%128 W · 66 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Medjedovic23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4642141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Auger-Aliassime78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4432050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500c…883cbacked Auger-Aliassime77c194.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8114860.1%89 W · 59 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Medjedovic21c193.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6528338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Medjedovic23c192$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1625428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Medjedovic11c184.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f57…7a67backed Medjedovic11c182.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Medjedovic9c178.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4533326.4%88 W · 245 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Auger-Aliassime78c178.53$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5314475%108 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Auger-Aliassime79c175.18$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.798262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Auger-Aliassime76c160$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.449143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x176e…8f96backed Auger-Aliassime77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3417863.5%113 W · 65 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb48c…ab11backed Medjedovic10c146.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Auger-Aliassime77c144.55$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Medjedovic10c142.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f2…e0c9backed Auger-Aliassime78c139.73$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.947356.2%41 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Auger-Aliassime75c132.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2457249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Medjedovic23c132$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3621338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Medjedovic24c131.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5842046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Auger-Aliassime78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.216648.5%32 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Medjedovic22c127.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9618133.1%60 W · 121 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x087f…075ebacked Auger-Aliassime79c126.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.822360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Auger-Aliassime79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.584146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8666…a368backed Medjedovic21c112.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.266327%17 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6971…c447backed Auger-Aliassime79c110.13$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.131266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Medjedovic23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.998445.2%38 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Medjedovic25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Auger-Aliassime78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2224055%132 W · 108 L-15.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Medjedovic25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.755626.8%15 W · 41 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Medjedovic21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2304…6541backed Auger-Aliassime77c97.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.333458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9da2…ed3abacked Auger-Aliassime79c94.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9410668.9%73 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf12d…7350backed Auger-Aliassime75c91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Auger-Aliassime79c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.958753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Auger-Aliassime77c89.65$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8313138.9%51 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Auger-Aliassime79c88.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.528952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Medjedovic23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.