TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Musettiof Musetti, Machac
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$546,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$589,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,834 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Musetti61c32,543$19,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,563.4227063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Machac35c31,477$11,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,017.1111242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Machac38c30,000$11,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,449.916552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Musetti63c29,723$18,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,927.593046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Machac33c25,620$8,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,449.811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0748…a31ebacked Machac34c20,725$7,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,114862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb50…be06backed Musetti61c19,522$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,521.821050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Musetti77c18,082$13,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.6718047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Machac33c15,782$5,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,217.082,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Machac38c12,500$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9917823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Machac39c12,424$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,862.2110162.4%63 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Machac31c11,714$3,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,636.158825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Musetti65c11,349$7,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,946.298,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Machac37c11,138$4,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,121.055955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Machac38c8,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.9957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Machac37c7,739$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.731,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Machac40c7,311$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.72,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Machac36c7,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9866949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Musetti62c5,825$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.934957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Machac37c5,816$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.4424846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Musetti55c5,500$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9944360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Musetti63c5,476$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.1978152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Machac38c5,300$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.9735247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56fc…a1f1backed Musetti59c5,040$2,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.4560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Musetti55c4,564$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.9793055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…7adebacked Musetti79c4,276$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.894100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Musetti64c4,262$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.9127460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Musetti63c4,127$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed Machac41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6402218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Musetti59c3,922$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.4319846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf88…556ebacked Musetti60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Musetti59c3,395$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.958555.3%47 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Machac38c3,332$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26633256%186 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Musetti61c3,281$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti62c3,279$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.921,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Musetti68c3,115$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.5899044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Musetti60c3,099$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.132,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Musetti63c3,030$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.9214940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Machac40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc17…60dabacked Machac38c2,907$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Musetti71c2,895$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.7565647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Machac35c2,825$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.541,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Machac41c2,755$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.568446.4%39 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Machac42c2,672$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.2537444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Machac35c2,604$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.887,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Machac13c2,524$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.921,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Machac43c2,484$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06848552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Musetti80c2,431$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.571,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f0f…e422backed Machac41c2,409$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Machac41c2,399$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.887736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Musetti62c2,300$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8741478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c61…c3c9backed Musetti60c2,278$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Machac36c2,222$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Machac46c2,196$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Musetti62c2,153$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1420653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Musetti62c2,033$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.052,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Machac35c2,022$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.718548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Musetti60c2,005$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Musetti65c1,851$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.15444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Machac36c1,787$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Musetti68c1,680$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.432,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Musetti64c1,671$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.143,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Musetti59c1,629$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.898158%47 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Musetti63c1,509$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.5711941.2%49 W · 70 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Machac37c1,412$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52898240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Musetti63c1,375$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.647552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Musetti70c1,362$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.362,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Musetti46c1,327$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.462751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Machac56c1,253$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.9414343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Musetti60c1,250$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50063247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Machac41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Machac35c1,104$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.952,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Machac30c1,085$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.4222337.7%84 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Musetti63c1,080$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.552231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Musetti62c1,045$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.479949.5%49 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Machac33c1,044$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.5954547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Musetti63c1,006$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.112861.7%79 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Machac32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32040144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4735…d4ebbacked Machac32c987.24$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Musetti58c977.66$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.2118551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Musetti64c916.56$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.175228.8%15 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Musetti75c898.89$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8213351.9%69 W · 64 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Machac22c892.59$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19519023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69c9…e904backed Machac40c891.33$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.532334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Musetti74c880.77$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8420844.2%92 W · 116 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…5397backed Musetti80c875.28$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.284158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Musetti60c855.93$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.3738348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Machac37c841.16$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.241,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Machac40c790.22$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.012,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1f26backed Machac18c779.74$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Musetti64c770$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.21190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+45.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Machac24c749.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.284010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed Musetti55c749.94$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9713554.8%74 W · 61 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Musetti54c715.33$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3371857.7%414 W · 304 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Musetti63c692.97$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.2726244.7%117 W · 145 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c03…811ebacked Machac37c676.84$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.432133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Musetti65c674.25$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.024,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Musetti62c623.22$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1615363.4%97 W · 56 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Musetti41c599.95$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.979247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f25…8c36backed Machac37c578.38$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2145373.6%39 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.