Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b5cb4234a46290794de00881be1483d76798f1c0c4b6a188f28a8aa0a6eba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Musetti, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0748…a31ebacked Machac | 46c | 2,849$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Musetti | 59c | 1,855$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Musetti | 54c | 1,123$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.84 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Machac | 41c | 505.53$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Musetti | 59c | 223.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Musetti | 54c | 217.38$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Machac | 69c | 202.47$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Musetti | 54c | 178.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Musetti | 55c | 118$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Musetti | 56c | 111$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Machac | 41c | 109$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Machac | 44c | 106.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Musetti | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 42c | 82.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece4…4001backed Musetti | 65c | 53.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Machac | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Machac | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Machac | 46c | 41.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Machac | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Musetti | 60c | 31.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Musetti | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Machac | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Machac | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Machac | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…93aebacked Machac | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Machac | 49c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Machac | 60c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Musetti | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Machacthis page
- Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas MachacMusetti won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Machac: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)Machac won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-2.5) vs Machac (+2.5)Machac won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.