Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Peyton Stearns vs Petra Marcinko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb9e7b5353fb4c9a2e18eeb1bf4cc171f89f4e69dbf413499e408f1de1004ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stearnsof Stearns, Marcinko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Stearns | 68c | 13,123$8,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.47 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Marcinko | 42c | 11,559$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Stearns | 58c | 4,651$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.42 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Marcinko | 33c | 4,543$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.66 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stearns | 57c | 3,242$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.88 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marcinko | 34c | 2,812$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.88 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Marcinko | 30c | 2,024$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.47 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Stearns | 72c | 1,867$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.57 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Stearns | 73c | 799.44$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.08 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Marcinko | 28c | 746.76$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.36 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Marcinko | 21c | 668.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stearns | 67c | 557.52$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.62 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stearns | 72c | 538$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stearns | 69c | 503.28$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.17 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Stearns | 70c | 502.09$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Marcinko | 43c | 426.81$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.53 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Stearns | 60c | 414.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Stearns | 59c | 400$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Stearns | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Stearns | 73c | 272.22$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Marcinko | 40c | 264.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Marcinko | 41c | 242.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Stearns | 58c | 225.12$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Stearns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Stearns | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Stearns | 56c | 194.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Stearns | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Stearns | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…f87ebacked Stearns | 74c | 151.04$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Marcinko | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Marcinko | 31c | 131$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Stearns | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…1ee8backed Marcinko | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Marcinko | 46c | 109.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Stearns | 58c | 103.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 370 | 71.9%266 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…672cbacked Stearns | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Marcinko | 42c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Marcinko | 32c | 79.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Marcinko | 32c | 75.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Marcinko | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Stearns | 76c | 65.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Stearns | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Marcinko | 32c | 62.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Stearns | 65c | 61.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Marcinko | 44c | 59.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…27d9backed Marcinko | 44c | 56.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Marcinko | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Marcinko | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Marcinko | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Stearns | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Marcinko | 38c | 46.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Marcinko | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…bb66backed Stearns | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Stearns | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Stearns | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818e…b787backed Stearns | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b96…7b25backed Stearns | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Marcinko | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Stearns | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Stearns | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Stearns | 52c | 25.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Stearns | 58c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Stearns | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Stearns | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Peyton Stearns vs Petra Marcinkothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Stearns vs MarcinkoStearns won
- Set Handicap: Stearns (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5)Stearns won
- Stearns vs. Marcinko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Stearns vs. Marcinko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.