TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,753,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,926,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,753,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 648 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bucks19c390,000$75,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,499.9251844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bucks17c300,000$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Bucks20c250,000$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00021057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bucks19c200,880$38,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,167.1554539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Thunder80c170,000$136,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,00026753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder80c123,903$99,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,780.5296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks15c115,000$17,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,52148343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks23c78,139$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,599.9476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks2c40,988$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.854,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder79c37,298$29,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,967.092,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder80c35,794$28,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,158.842,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks17c30,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Bucks1c29,391$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.575213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Bucks19c29,263$5,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,560.0116752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bucks0c26,335$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder77c24,859$19,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,730.161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder80c24,663$19,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,037.9562351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder79c21,380$16,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,489.791,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Bucks18c20,400$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.9761835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder80c19,359$15,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Bucks6c19,000$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bucks17c18,415$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.6159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Bucks19c16,842$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20018140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Bucks12c16,593$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.9112843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Bucks23c15,377$3,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,536.6439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder79c12,796$10,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,687.238253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder79c12,413$9,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.063,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b9…b6a9backed Bucks2c12,321$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005427.8%15 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Thunder77c11,565$8,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.572,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bucks3c10,636$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.6364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Bucks23c10,517$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,418.7935547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Bucks19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bucks17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Bucks0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105523.6%13 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Bucks13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Bucks1c9,977$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3166732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Thunder80c9,176$7,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.134654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6141…ded2backed Thunder77c9,012$6,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.87100%7 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bucks3c8,256$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.371,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Bucks21c8,154$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.9340035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Bucks22c8,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9946928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Bucks19c7,579$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4404961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Bucks23c7,200$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.9914055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Thunder80c7,000$5,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.8135251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Thunder76c6,500$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56013148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks5c6,085$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.321,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bucks21c5,714$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20072450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338c…bef7backed Bucks19c5,695$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.6114626.7%39 W · 107 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Bucks18c5,559$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.5433735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks0c5,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Bucks20c5,200$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.9761336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks23c5,050$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bucks18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9977348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder80c4,764$3,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.891,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Thunder77c4,663$3,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.5520454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder77c4,601$3,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.232,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Bucks21c4,523$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3926247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bucks18c4,444$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.927424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bucks23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bucks17c4,265$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.0748845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Thunder77c4,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder79c3,843$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.7692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bucks3c3,821$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.411,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Bucks18c3,710$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.85152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb76f…8536backed Bucks20c3,668$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Thunder77c3,545$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.4525554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ec…8c8dbacked Bucks23c3,321$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74816134.2%55 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Bucks19c3,269$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.1150%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Thunder76c3,268$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Bucks8c3,230$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.350241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Bucks19c3,158$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Bucks1c3,057$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.757211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Bucks23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Thunder76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Thunder76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72020453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec88…9417backed Thunder76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Bucks19c2,946$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.584052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Bucks10c2,886$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30045838%174 W · 284 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…c792backed Bucks24c2,600$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6241855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe44d…1034backed Thunder77c2,600$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5982665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Bucks7c2,587$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.834723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…c371backed Bucks0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792b…146abacked Bucks20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023343.3%101 W · 132 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d3…46adbacked Bucks24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…5307backed Bucks18c2,424$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.196546.2%30 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Bucks21c2,361$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6763…15c5backed Bucks5c2,207$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d19…5fd8backed Thunder77c2,150$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf39…31a2backed Thunder76c2,100$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5041338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c7…05b5backed Bucks24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.984920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Thunder76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bucks22c2,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c2…39edbacked Bucks21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010635.8%38 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46058951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bucks23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Bucks11c2,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Bucks1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124200.7%3 W · 417 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Bucks24c1,936$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2427247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.