TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks45c25,658$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks51c20,295$10,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,250.691,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder53c14,982$7,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,041.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder55c14,802$8,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,602.961,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder50c14,614$7,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,297.242,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder59c14,329$8,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,875.0966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks45c8,303$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.413,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Bucks51c6,767$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.1613239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f7…00f9backed Bucks41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.994022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder56c4,755$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.232,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bucks41c4,000$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder53c3,908$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.221,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2381…e7b1backed Bucks50c3,279$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed Bucks44c2,907$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.192040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x535a…5b28backed Thunder50c2,780$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d5…fdc5backed Thunder50c2,719$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9505…2672backed Bucks50c2,710$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb953…13f6backed Bucks50c2,388$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f72…c9e1backed Thunder50c2,195$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8480…6f50backed Thunder50c2,147$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Thunder49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8222035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Thunder49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9337539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder57c1,815$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.454,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a4…a356backed Bucks50c1,419$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Bucks43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Bucks48c1,100$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9952844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3873…c068backed Thunder50c1,007$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.914537.9%55 W · 90 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Thunder51c1,002$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.6450954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92de…558dbacked Bucks44c980$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Thunder56c954$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.0929344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder59c906$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Thunder80c708.52$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3114255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Thunder57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.7526553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Bucks49c692.84$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.5416642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bucks14c677.34$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7983039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder51c652.94$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9439051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Bucks45c621.94$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3968940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder53c586.76$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.7838253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bd…7f07backed Thunder50c581.68$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks39c547.64$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.928,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Bucks50c505.56$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7849249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Thunder59c505.41$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.011127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Thunder56c505.03$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.352,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Bucks43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4e…ebb7backed Thunder50c426.8$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks17c415.46$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.72,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e9c…b89ebacked Bucks50c413.46$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bucks41c409$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.691,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4582…00d0backed Thunder50c404.5$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.25955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342a…980cbacked Thunder56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…b925backed Bucks50c393.62$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.81540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Bucks51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Thunder50c350.56$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.725658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x596b…27acbacked Bucks50c343.85$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67fc…7514backed Thunder50c338.95$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.48955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bbc…39c9backed Bucks50c322.67$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.341145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Bucks48c319.01$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1240648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Bucks51c313.73$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16023847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Thunder51c310.45$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1251146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3312…e0fcbacked Thunder56c310$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Thunder52c307.69$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6922953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Thunder50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15061747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Bucks47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14116539.4%65 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Thunder56c276.55$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.681,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f0…8834backed Thunder56c270$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Bucks50c255$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.550241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Bucks41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011051.8%57 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Thunder59c237.29$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2918456%103 W · 81 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x934b…33bebacked Bucks51c234.89$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x46d4…44b3backed Bucks51c228.82$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.74757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Thunder49c226.53$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5316030.6%49 W · 111 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Bucks51c220$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.220754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Bucks46c216.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder58c201.93$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.811,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Thunder59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8256348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca5…85edbacked Thunder50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0861056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714e…bee1backed Bucks50c186.18$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.091145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x516b…5a77backed Thunder50c183.2$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.62245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bucks47c174.49$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.441,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d95…4cdebacked Thunder50c174.13$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Bucks48c173.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.466143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f50…c6e1backed Bucks50c171.42$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.71955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed Thunder59c154.62$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0212549.6%62 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a4…86dabacked Thunder70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.869948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder58c132.83$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.792,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2683…2be7backed Bucks42c132.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.793548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Thunder61c127$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.539244.6%41 W · 51 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb61c…d57dbacked Bucks47c123.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Thunder51c117.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6825056.8%142 W · 108 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…6db6backed Bucks19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x475e…a015backed Bucks50c102.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.35955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Thunder57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4311242%47 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2af0…8473backed Bucks43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Bucks41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4128838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Bucks51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515848.3%28 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1304…cce4backed Thunder62c96.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.882470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder57c92.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0253043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Thunder57c92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4019350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3d…2068backed Bucks43c88.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3812253.3%65 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.