NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7226d5efd29d8eb6546606fbdbf340b8de1763cdeafd8fd654c7baee130661e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Thunder | 49c | 40,500$19,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,655 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Bucks | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,399.99 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Bucks | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Thunder | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.27 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder | 48c | 5,918$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,077.4 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed Bucks | 51c | 2,129$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.67 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Bucks | 52c | 2,096$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Bucks | 51c | 2,060$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.51 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Bucks | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 49c | 1,758$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 49c | 993.28$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.57 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Thunder | 49c | 865.84$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.58 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Bucks | 12c | 699.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 51c | 669.08$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Bucks | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Thunder | 65c | 449.98$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…cee8backed Bucks | 52c | 347.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.52 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bucks | 31c | 340.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Bucks | 22c | 304.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Bucks | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Thunder | 58c | 267.06$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…db6bbacked Bucks | 52c | 243.71$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Bucks | 53c | 211.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…fb30backed Thunder | 49c | 204.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder | 79c | 198$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 51c | 196.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Bucks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…608cbacked Bucks | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Thunder | 49c | 152.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…6db6backed Bucks | 24c | 152.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Thunder | 49c | 129.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Thunder | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Thunder | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Thunder | 80c | 125.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Bucks | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…648ebacked Thunder | 49c | 112.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Thunder | 49c | 104.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Thunder | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 50c | 96.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Thunder | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Thunder | 49c | 84.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Thunder | 49c | 81.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…4773backed Thunder | 49c | 79.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Thunder | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…111ebacked Thunder | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455b…2d47backed Thunder | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…68f6backed Thunder | 49c | 51.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Bucks | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8155…eb2cbacked Thunder | 49c | 49.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Thunder | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…483dbacked Bucks | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…2badbacked Bucks | 44c | 45.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0f9bbacked Thunder | 49c | 44.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Bucks | 47c | 40.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9277…2aedbacked Thunder | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…d0f7backed Thunder | 50c | 38.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…bd7cbacked Thunder | 49c | 37.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a1…3b93backed Thunder | 48c | 36.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Thunder | 49c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Thunder | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…61b7backed Bucks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Thunder | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…40a4backed Thunder | 49c | 24.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…8de0backed Bucks | 54c | 23.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 52c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Thunder | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. BucksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.