TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$768,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$770,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $768,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over55c474,269$259,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214,474.3387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Under45c400,000$180,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180,0002552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under45c200,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,00054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Over55c199,948$109,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,976.626253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c32,827$15,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,026.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Under46c18,000$8,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2802653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Over56c15,000$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5404544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under45c12,500$5,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6252,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c10,668$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.292,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c9,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9604,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over53c8,075$4,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.971,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under46c6,660$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,076.123,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over55c5,337$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.6424554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Over56c4,297$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.476650%33 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c3,924$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under46c3,838$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.4895651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under45c3,476$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.21,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c3,374$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.754,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Under47c3,150$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Under44c3,015$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.468742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Over56c2,941$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.8813563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under45c2,558$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under45c2,310$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c1,967$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.681,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Under47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c900$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Over56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.863943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Over48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41610446.2%48 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Over57c771.77$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.8619147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under46c696$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.482,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over55c501$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22559144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c488$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.122,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75da…fc93backed Over56c455.36$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.361546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under51c450.98$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Under46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005550.9%28 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…e731backed Over55c408.01$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under46c404.13$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked Over55c400.41$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.411866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19221858.7%128 W · 90 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under47c372$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.842,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under54c368.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013354.1%72 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Over55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6417041.8%71 W · 99 L-12.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under47c344.34$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.592,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over51c328.22$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.422,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Under51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024556.3%138 W · 107 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Over56c292.42$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8616658.4%97 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Over53c284$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4840648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Under45c280$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267341.1%30 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under49c259$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.911,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82a…cc74backed Over55c254.55$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5512155.4%67 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Under45c249.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.520353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ae…ae58backed Over55c240.84$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under46c240.27$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11188845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed Under46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Under47c211.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.518954.5%103 W · 86 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8215161.6%93 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb248…3652backed Over55c181.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.812360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5abb…f22dbacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8df…6df7backed Over55c176.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.597745.5%35 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4421753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under48c160$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.834451.5%177 W · 167 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x650a…e30fbacked Over56c160$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Over52c153.02$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0232952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under47c141.13$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.171,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over55c136.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3611158.6%65 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under52c128$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.561,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6033442.8%143 W · 191 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9443…dd60backed Over56c125$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1c3…be5abacked Over56c125$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under48c121.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0520638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Under47c119.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2156945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Over56c116.29$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2924454.1%132 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04f2…bc84backed Over56c115.44$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.443050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under48c113.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.753149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf232…4fc6backed Under70c110$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7712766.9%85 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under47c107.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.712,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Under48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017353.2%92 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Over55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4535851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4922845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Over55c97$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.652638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x966e…b2febacked Over52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6910…8da8backed Under53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+112.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.323153.2%123 W · 108 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Over57c87.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7417155.6%95 W · 76 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under48c84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3262349.6%309 W · 314 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under48c84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3271747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.