NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee430aaae667e89259b549b086a686a86872ab1d2e6df3e03e0239197b96a5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 626.75$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.59 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 561.07$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.61 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over | 60c | 440$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 215.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 179.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 178.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Over | 67c | 167.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 162.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 39c | 129.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 74c | 118.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 48c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 88.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 78.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 26c | 63.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 58c | 61.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 47c | 36.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 47c | 26.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Over | 61c | 18.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. ThunderThunder won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.