NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8425756f3ff92269f25b44392a91bd64f622252806faeea3a17132a9a89d3674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdb…ffa9backed Over | 58c | 10,264$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.96 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +10.8wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 9,402$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 57c | 8,328$4,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.48 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 5,102$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 2,455$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.4 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 2,218$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.02 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 1,615$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.55 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 747.05$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.54 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 57c | 703$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 51c | 582$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.18 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 381.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Over | 57c | 352.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 306$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 298.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 43c | 204.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 67c | 187.43$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Over | 74c | 180$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 48c | 156.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 97.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 75.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…be5bbacked Over | 59c | 68.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 58c | 60.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 46c | 51.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 47.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…09bbbacked Under | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…5817backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 43c | 35.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…8edbbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 51c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Over | 55c | 26.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 26.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 50c | 22.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6500…790bbacked Over | 53c | 20.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. ThunderThunder won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.