NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Thunder

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda685356b0420daaeaec34be3d808f4d529999797700f00ac029e66f1627dd01

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Thunderof Heat, Thunder
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,508,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,453,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,508,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Heat	14c	156,042$21,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,845.83	518	44.4%230 W · 288 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Heat	14c	149,567$20,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,893.71	375	39.5%148 W · 227 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Heat	14c	50,100$7,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,014	109	30.3%33 W · 76 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Heat	14c	39,999$5,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,599.92	352	35.8%126 W · 226 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	14c	29,453$4,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,103.66	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Heat	15c	26,962$4,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,044.35	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Heat	1c	21,785$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.5	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Heat	14c	20,050$2,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,807	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Heat	14c	20,000$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,800	266	37.2%99 W · 167 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3873…c068backed Thunder	76c	19,997$15,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,874.63	145	37.9%55 W · 90 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Thunder	79c	17,609$13,972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,637.43	1,003	34.7%348 W · 655 L	-44.7wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Heat	14c	16,983$2,378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,377.68	121	47.9%58 W · 63 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	28c	16,242$4,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,585.94	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat	22c	15,257$3,308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,308.08	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc82f…460dbacked Heat	19c	15,203$2,887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,887.26	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Heat	0c	15,095$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.47	882	0%0 W · 882 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Heat	14c	15,000$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Heat	15c	13,720$2,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,058	191	36.1%69 W · 122 L	-15.3wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Thunder	74c	13,068$9,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,388	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder	79c	13,028$10,318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,710.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Heat	14c	12,000$1,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Thunder	74c	12,000$8,860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,139.97	181	51.4%93 W · 88 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heat	25c	10,738$2,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,719.96	488	45.3%221 W · 267 L	+18.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Heat	15c	10,500$1,540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,540	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Heat	14c	10,500$1,420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,419.98	470	28.1%132 W · 338 L	+27.2wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Heat	14c	10,100$1,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,414	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0864…df33backed Heat	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+127.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb614…a2a0backed Heat	14c	10,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Heat	14c	10,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.97	469	28.4%133 W · 336 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Heat	13c	9,721$1,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,263.73	367	41.4%152 W · 215 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Heat	23c	9,439$2,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,188.83	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Heat	14c	9,400$1,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,316	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Heat	1c	9,223$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.85	645	17.1%110 W · 535 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Heat	13c	9,133$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.3	287	42.9%123 W · 164 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Heat	17c	9,127$1,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.04	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat	14c	7,143$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac1…e989backed Heat	28c	7,021$1,955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,954.8	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	31cpaid	+90.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Heat	16c	6,076$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	428	27.3%117 W · 311 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat	16c	5,818$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.48	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder	77c	5,448$4,179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,269.56	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Thunder	65c	4,861$3,148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,713.15	397	44.3%176 W · 221 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Heat	14c	4,571$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	489	38.7%189 W · 300 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Heat	25c	4,165$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.9	336	32.4%109 W · 227 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Heat	16c	4,089$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.19	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Heat	5c	4,051$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.37	103	4.9%5 W · 98 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat	17c	4,000$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Heat	15c	4,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	178	61.2%109 W · 69 L	+11.4wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Heat	11c	3,999$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.92	426	40.4%172 W · 254 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf6…3dd0backed Heat	17c	3,862$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.76	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	22cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat	17c	3,771$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.23	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Heat	32c	3,700$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.5	121	43%52 W · 69 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Heat	17c	3,441$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.18	206	38.3%79 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Heat	15c	3,418$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.57	113	52.2%59 W · 54 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Heat	15c	3,333$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	466	32.6%152 W · 314 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…5a2dbacked Heat	30c	3,045$914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$913.57	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Heat	14c	3,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	219	51.1%112 W · 107 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat	28c	3,000$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830	1,752	40.6%712 W · 1,040 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Thunder	74c	2,838$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$737.84	241	51.9%125 W · 116 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Heat	25c	2,751$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.85	163	35.6%58 W · 105 L	-12.2wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Heat	26c	2,717$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.7	508	38.2%194 W · 314 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Heat	19c	2,703$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	354	38.1%135 W · 219 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3107…63b9backed Thunder	78c	2,700$2,105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594.77	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	68cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Heat	14c	2,500$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	248	31.9%79 W · 169 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Heat	14c	2,500$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat	14c	2,429$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.74	753	47.5%358 W · 395 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Heat	14c	2,420$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328	155	14.8%23 W · 132 L	-28.1wins	-0.18per pick	33cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0x2662…975abacked Heat	14c	2,293$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.97	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Heat	14c	2,241$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.78	548	38%208 W · 340 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1baa…173dbacked Heat	2c	2,180$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Heat	14c	2,121$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.97	118	36.4%43 W · 75 L	-12.3wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Heat	13c	2,065$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.41	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Heat	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1658…d875backed Heat	28c	2,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	38cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f19…2eccbacked Thunder	73c	2,000$1,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Heat	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	623	47.7%297 W · 326 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Heat	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Heat	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed Heat	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	207	28.5%59 W · 148 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc560…df23backed Heat	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Heat	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	125	31.2%39 W · 86 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Heat	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	432	47.5%205 W · 227 L	+11.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7a…a1f2backed Thunder	74c	1,923$1,417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.75	55	70.9%39 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	64cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Heat	15c	1,900$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	79	43%34 W · 45 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Heat	26c	1,900$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	45cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x239b…964abacked Heat	28c	1,861$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.05	100	59%59 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Heat	27c	1,767$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.2	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Heat	17c	1,765$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	123	24.4%30 W · 93 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0792…2297backed Heat	18c	1,711$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6973…6db6backed Heat	14c	1,649$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.85	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Thunder	78c	1,465$1,145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.12	216	42.1%91 W · 125 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe756…e006backed Heat	21c	1,454$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.05	328	27.4%90 W · 238 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Heat	18c	1,447$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.41	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Heat	14c	1,381$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder	72c	1,377$994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.19	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Heat	25c	1,359$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.72	251	46.2%116 W · 135 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Thunder	79c	1,320$1,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.54	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Heat	14c	1,288$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.31	146	47.9%70 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Thunder	73c	1,265$925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.17	605	49.8%301 W · 304 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Heat	20c	1,251$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2407…7dcabacked Heat	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Thunder

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event