NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27cf0398178fd54b914e9b67f46270c9d575c4dd794e0f87fbe9a345a96e4a64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 51c | 27,015$13,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,300.15 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,985$4,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,666.28 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 50c | 8,851$4,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,389.18 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 49c | 5,907$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.4 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 5,090$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.95 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 50c | 5,020$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 52c | 4,491$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.25 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 3,403$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.59 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 2,692$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.63 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 47c | 2,649$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.8 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 48c | 2,429$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.17 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 2,226$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,951$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 49c | 1,680$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.3 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 1,627$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.7 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Under | 48c | 1,521$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Over | 50c | 1,278$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 733$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.49 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 726$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 51c | 707.84$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.84 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Under | 53c | 660.57$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 50c | 552.01$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.51 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 101.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 76.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 63.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 58.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 57.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 53.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 49c | 42.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 49c | 26.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. ThunderThunder won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.