NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ea363c221070b5d50d5b0ade71e4ac59c2139ca41b36ff419576cb856c4707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Thunder, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,090,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,098,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,090,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e7…be51backed Heat | 51c | 1,075,682$547,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527,927.25 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Thunder | 49c | 700,000$345,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345,000 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 51c | 699,392$356,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356,676.93 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Heat | 49c | 300,000$147,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153,000 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Heat | 50c | 200,000$99,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,500 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder | 49c | 126,326$61,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,899.8 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Heat | 49c | 104,015$50,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,047.82 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Thunder | 49c | 18,888$9,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,332.89 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 49c | 14,995$7,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,297.7 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…ffa9backed Heat | 51c | 13,644$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,743.62 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +10.8wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 49c | 13,300$6,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,511.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 49c | 11,657$5,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,716.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Thunder | 49c | 10,204$4,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,962.43 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder | 50c | 10,030$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.87 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…88b4backed Thunder | 51c | 8,615$4,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,392.98 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Thunder | 51c | 8,023$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.75 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 49c | 6,483$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,308.47 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 51c | 5,600$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.2 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Thunder | 50c | 4,571$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.5 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder | 50c | 4,400$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 54c | 4,324$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Thunder | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Thunder | 51c | 3,935$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.71 | 135 | 63%85 W · 50 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Thunder | 47c | 3,438$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Heat | 51c | 3,415$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.44 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heat | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Heat | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.98 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat | 52c | 2,581$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.9 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Thunder | 49c | 2,573$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.54 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 49c | 2,452$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.53 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Thunder | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Thunder | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Heat | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Heat | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.94 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Heat | 52c | 1,964$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.72 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 52c | 1,537$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.48 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 50c | 1,456$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.65 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 51c | 1,380$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.73 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 51c | 1,115$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.37 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Heat | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 47c | 937.78$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.12 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 46c | 937.12$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Heat | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Heat | 53c | 899.99$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.49 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…a405backed Thunder | 50c | 850$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Heat | 55c | 727.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.45 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 47c | 657.56$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Thunder | 51c | 647.04$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Heat | 54c | 622.69$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.5 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb248…3652backed Thunder | 49c | 608.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Thunder | 42c | 606$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.27 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Thunder | 49c | 601.82$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.89 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…9955backed Thunder | 10c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Thunder | 5c | 596.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Thunder | 13c | 594.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Heat | 53c | 566.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.42 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Thunder | 39c | 553.45$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Heat | 54c | 535.67$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.41 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Heat | 54c | 515.78$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.26 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…92c8backed Thunder | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 48c | 480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat | 48c | 473.32$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.13 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Thunder | 51c | 436.22$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.47 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Heat | 55c | 409.15$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Thunder | 47c | 404.19$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.97 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Heat | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Heat | 57c | 396.53$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Heat | 53c | 395.41$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.41 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 51c | 389.48$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Thunder | 47c | 381.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.28 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Thunder | 35c | 326.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Heat | 56c | 308.04$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Heat | 51c | 304.25$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.08 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Heat | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Thunder | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Heat | 67c | 298.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Thunder | 51c | 294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 292.84$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Thunder | 27c | 282.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Thunder | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Heat | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Heat | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Heat | 52c | 229.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Thunder | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…9802backed Heat | 50c | 213.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3badbacked Thunder | 51c | 212.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…fc93backed Thunder | 45c | 202$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Thunder | 50c | 200.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Thunder | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Thunder | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder | 43c | 190.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Heat | 48c | 182$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Heat | 50c | 180.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Thunder | 34c | 164.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Thunder | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 400 | 35.5%142 W · 258 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. ThunderThunder won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.