TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Thunder, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,090,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,098,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,090,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Heat51c1,075,682$547,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527,927.2510049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Thunder49c700,000$345,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345,00026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Thunder51c699,392$356,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356,676.9387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Heat49c300,000$147,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,0002552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Heat50c200,000$99,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,50054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder49c126,326$61,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,899.81,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Heat49c104,015$50,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,047.8213248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Thunder49c18,888$9,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,332.8914753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder49c14,995$7,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,297.72,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Heat51c13,644$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,743.623884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder49c13,300$6,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,511.683,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder49c11,657$5,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,716.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Thunder49c10,204$4,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.4336359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder50c10,030$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.8747751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Thunder51c8,615$4,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,392.9822453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder51c8,023$4,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,091.751,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat49c6,483$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.472,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder51c5,600$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.22,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Thunder50c4,571$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.527747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder50c4,400$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat54c4,324$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Thunder51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0401,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Thunder51c3,935$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.7113563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Thunder47c3,438$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61517344.5%77 W · 96 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Heat51c3,415$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.4448347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heat50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50048845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Heat49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9837944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat52c2,581$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Thunder49c2,573$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.549557.9%55 W · 40 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat49c2,452$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.534,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011755.6%65 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Heat53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9404761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Heat49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.945259.6%31 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Heat52c1,964$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.7292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat52c1,537$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.481,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder50c1,456$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.652,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat51c1,380$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.732,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder51c1,115$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.373,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Heat53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.43943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder47c937.78$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder46c937.12$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.964,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Heat54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9350347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Heat53c899.99$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.4916053.1%85 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…a405backed Thunder50c850$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.53961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Heat55c727.45$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4510045%45 W · 55 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat47c657.56$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.514,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Thunder51c647.04$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.998961.8%55 W · 34 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Heat54c622.69$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.557250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb248…3652backed Thunder49c608.16$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Thunder42c606$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2761939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Thunder49c601.82$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8932846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Thunder10c600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573818.4%7 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Thunder5c596.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.968512.9%11 W · 74 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Thunder13c594.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3339018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Heat53c566.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.429659.4%57 W · 39 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder39c553.45$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.282,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Heat54c535.67$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4191050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236a…1a3ebacked Heat54c515.78$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.268341%34 W · 49 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Thunder52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.665954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder48c480$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.41,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat48c473.32$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.132,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Thunder51c436.22$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4719147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Heat55c409.15$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.154047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Thunder47c404.19$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9710255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Heat54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18440243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Heat57c396.53$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5315348.4%74 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9501…a052backed Heat53c395.41$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.416144.3%27 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder51c389.48$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Thunder47c381.01$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Thunder35c326.11$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2320638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882e…54cebacked Heat56c308.04$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Heat51c304.25$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.084639.1%18 W · 28 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Heat47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15916539.4%65 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Thunder50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15034447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Heat67c298.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.652864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x650a…e30fbacked Thunder51c294$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder50c292.84$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.083,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Thunder27c282.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3359141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Thunder50c260$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13022953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Heat50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Heat53c240$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.862539.4%246 W · 379 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Heat52c229.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8363745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Thunder51c215.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11021753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…9802backed Heat50c213.49$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.011421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa25c…3badbacked Thunder51c212.26$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75da…fc93backed Thunder45c202$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.91546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Thunder50c200.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3440346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Heat50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10095548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Thunder52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10461747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Thunder49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9847856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder43c190.54$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.933,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Heat48c182$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1212947.3%61 W · 68 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Heat50c180.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0816658.4%97 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Thunder34c164.57$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9521642.1%91 W · 125 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Thunder50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.