Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f7fb283dde3934287e119faa0c07d087a5cabefe3cbaae26a036ce6238a581a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked No | 73c | 34,301$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,300.58 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 13,193$3,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.21 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 7,708$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.96 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 5,127$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.77 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…90b2backed No | 72c | 4,455$3,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 4,054$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.26 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Yes | 27c | 3,861$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.84 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,068$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.32 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 70c | 2,857$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.14 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 71c | 2,820$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.79 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,058$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.29 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 1,805$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.99 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 1,653$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.3 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 12c | 709$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 662$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 370.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Yes | 5c | 283.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 30c | 249.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 28c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…b32cbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 80.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 70c | 65.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 70c | 58.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 27c | 50.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 29c | 48.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 29c | 41.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a71…4f0fbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-01?this page
- Will Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.