Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-01?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759773299141cba77e0c9da2f57ebae2196cf834017d44d4c5222abe7efad33b

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $89,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $113,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No	57c	9,100$5,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,187	506	44.3%224 W · 282 L	-14.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64aa…1dc7backed Yes	67c	4,468$3,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,458.47	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No	57c	4,462$2,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,545.71	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes	43c	4,400$1,892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,508	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked No	58c	4,314$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No	14c	4,241$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.78	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed No	57c	2,062$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,175.34	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Yes	43c	2,015$866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,148.28	89	58.4%52 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	406	40.9%166 W · 240 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4160…e42dbacked No	1c	1,999$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	+4.8wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No	4c	1,705$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.39	130	5.4%7 W · 123 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	26c	1,694$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.66	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	19c	1,415$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.57	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	42c	1,380$583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$797.13	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed No	56c	1,193$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.26	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+5.9wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Yes	65c	1,083$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.6	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No	5c	1,060$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	111	62.2%69 W · 42 L	+10.1wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2da0…2f48backed Yes	43c	930.23$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.23	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Yes	67c	903.79$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.25	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Yes	67c	749.25$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.25	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes	43c	700$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No	37c	700$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259	167	37.7%63 W · 104 L	+10.6wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No	32c	591.6$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.31	182	59.3%108 W · 74 L	+14.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+12%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1df…4404backed No	25c	536.54$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.79	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	-8.5wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	43c	512$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.54	1,146	42.8%490 W · 656 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…7d67backed Yes	44c	475.89$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	53c	434.85$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.85	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes	41c	434$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.25	1,204	50.7%610 W · 594 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No	57c	425$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.25	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe666…14f5backed No	60c	421.57$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.94	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No	25c	372.23$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.58	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No	59c	351$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.09	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b84…de18backed Yes	73c	343.94$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.64	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes	44c	340.15$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.53	827	63%521 W · 306 L	+113.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No	58c	300$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	92	54.3%50 W · 42 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes	42c	300$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173	201	44.3%89 W · 112 L	-9.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed No	58c	264.09$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.17	584	45.9%268 W · 316 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No	50c	256.2$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.83	240	44.2%106 W · 134 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes	43c	232.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.56	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes	43c	232.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.56	100	51%51 W · 49 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa21f…adddbacked Yes	44c	227.8$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.8	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b5b…3ea9backed Yes	65c	225.86$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.05	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No	57c	218.6$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.6	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes	44c	213.05$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.31	114	46.5%53 W · 61 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes	43c	209.3$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.3	243	49%119 W · 124 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked No	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	440	36.8%162 W · 278 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes	43c	158.1$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.2	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed No	56c	150.61$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.34	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes	43c	146.51$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.51	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No	59c	145.46$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.38	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	+9.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Yes	42c	120$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.6	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked No	37c	111$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.07	293	43.7%128 W · 165 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Yes	43c	102.67$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.52	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	328	22.3%73 W · 255 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ac…0871backed Yes	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3490backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4977…8fd6backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5853…dc28backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f2…d776backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x878c…529ebacked Yes	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes	43c	93.02$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.02	210	43.8%92 W · 118 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa686…8fccbacked No	35c	88.17$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3138…b523backed Yes	68c	73.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.53	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	-7.2wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Yes	43c	69.77$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.77	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Yes	67c	60$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	68cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	48c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	178	49.4%88 W · 90 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc597…668ebacked Yes	44c	45.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.77	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	95	41.1%39 W · 56 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked No	34c	45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	164	45.7%75 W · 89 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc840…0650backed No	57c	41.83$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd743…59bdbacked Yes	44c	40.91$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf617…7ff1backed Yes	44c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-5.2wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d85…0e0abacked Yes	61c	39.61$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	61cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Yes	43c	34.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd52…07aabacked Yes	43c	34.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x614f…114dbacked Yes	66c	31.82$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.82	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	61cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf38b…8ab5backed Yes	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No	58c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	396	51.5%204 W · 192 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	289	50.9%147 W · 142 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes	44c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdda…598ebacked Yes	64c	23.44$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.44	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a23…97a7backed No	57c	18.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed No	58c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	146	36.3%53 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5936…6e0dbacked Yes	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-01?this page
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-01?No won
Will Watford FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-01?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event