Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70735f4ab5d7fc7667a37c0377c8a23fad5880e9ac44b53d954a36d1b5133d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 4c | 7,474$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed No | 5c | 2,039$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 1c | 1,689$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 4c | 1,258$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 1c | 1,193$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 1,137$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 3c | 1,044$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec1…2778backed No | 32c | 907.9$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…a50ebacked Yes | 68c | 907.9$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…b30fbacked No | 15c | 539.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 9c | 499.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 4c | 499.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 4c | 400.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed No | 13c | 330.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 16c | 279.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked No | 5c | 237.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…9e62backed Yes | 75c | 212.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6f…d151backed No | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…2376backed No | 11c | 157.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 156.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 12c | 149.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 75c | 133.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked Yes | 77c | 129.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked No | 28c | 124.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 17c | 123.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 117.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…7db6backed No | 11c | 112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 21c | 111.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…0473backed No | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…e061backed No | 16c | 105.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7b…feb5backed No | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…9375backed No | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…d806backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…e80dbacked No | 13c | 97.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a746backed No | 35c | 95.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…c3b0backed No | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 16c | 90.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 38c | 89.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 62c | 89.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…6484backed No | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f63…3e0dbacked No | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 72c | 83.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 83.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 73.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…04e9backed No | 22c | 69.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcf…144fbacked Yes | 73c | 52.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…c536backed No | 37c | 48.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…ca44backed Yes | 78c | 46.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…5ee0backed Yes | 76c | 40.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 73c | 39.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 67c | 36.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 60c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…1f06backed Yes | 77c | 23.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 74c | 23.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 71c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…b92bbacked Yes | 80c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…e89bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…772fbacked Yes | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…f10ebacked Yes | 76c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.