TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,887 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae01…0c40backed No0c6,794$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.766918.8%13 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No2c2,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4532243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4988…e0e6backed No1c2,481$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.215242.3%22 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No1c2,146$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8410321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No6c1,859$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8320239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x940a…97afbacked No6c1,739$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No32c1,597$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06f…6571backed No1c1,559$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No2c1,522$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9121831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes65c1,350$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c1,318$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.214928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab2…45cfbacked No7c1,274$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No49c1,271$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.792326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-61.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xda73…8e23backed Yes79c1,140$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c1,131$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.661245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No4c937$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.055071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c931.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.67135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No11c890.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No13c839.33$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.536825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed No35c783$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No49c769$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.811225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No35c734$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.91822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No12c733.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9013246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes51c693$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.572759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes51c679$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.711643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes51c668$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.321145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes68c627$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.641752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b5…8378backed No19c613.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.661323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+279.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes68c607$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.241266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes68c593$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.761040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No3c499.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.136634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb3…da0ebacked No13c443.97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.721346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No6c442.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9212918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dab…840bbacked No13c418.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.093627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked No15c407.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5215751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d4c…f7debacked No41c347.85$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No9c346.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.750130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes65c341$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.352458.3%14 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x27db…25f1backed No15c334.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…9478backed No4c300.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6624712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5795…cae3backed No13c238.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed No32c230$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd431…9517backed Yes70c215.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No12c191.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0129653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes76c191.37$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.91752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No22c186.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4120131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked No35c174$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.91330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c165.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.961,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes64c165.14$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6210226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf247…5216backed No14c162.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes74c153.74$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.596339.7%25 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No20c146.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93e…82a6backed No14c144.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac1a…745ebacked Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No19c120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.624234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4712…99d1backed No11c115$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.073847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdab…8aeabacked No25c114.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c2…722fbacked No18c100.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-96.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74b6…87d9backed Yes73c99.82$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.784254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c82.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7239621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5b30backed No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-81.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ae…3255backed No14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…2e0dbacked No13c79.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.36944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+74.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5891…2efcbacked No32c77.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c71.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes74c69.19$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.196631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb4c…1b8ebacked Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882b…a746backed No19c67.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.666749.3%33 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb79c…f6c6backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed Yes73c58.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.554161%25 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No22c56.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked Yes75c53.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5110141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1734234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes74c48.48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4810428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…88cbbacked Yes79c44.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No27c41.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310341.7%43 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2812…c44fbacked Yes72c36.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb4…d3d4backed No29c34.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x936c…96e8backed Yes72c27.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.67837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c9…ca41backed Yes74c27.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.211010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-86.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.675942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes80c22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.44075%30 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.