Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34ebeff38f3dae7852e97a8c1af2fb906f6d3b59a6b688472af4cb27a480b5aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,520 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed No | 0c | 128,230$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…2286backed No | 14c | 14,268$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 4c | 7,075$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.02 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 1c | 4,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 2,964$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 4c | 2,574$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 2,069$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 17c | 1,788$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 10c | 1,661$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,659$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 10c | 1,569$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…e43abacked No | 3c | 1,457$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 10c | 1,448$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,345$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…b0b3backed No | 6c | 1,319$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…90bcbacked No | 2c | 1,280$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked No | 18c | 1,261$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.53 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 1,139$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…a426backed No | 5c | 1,054$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 12c | 949.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 11c | 857.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed No | 8c | 707.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 699$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…6b6abacked No | 7c | 671.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed No | 15c | 650.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 6c | 585.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…8378backed No | 14c | 563.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…47d4backed No | 2c | 520.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…cae3backed No | 5c | 486.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed No | 3c | 481.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 2c | 478$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 468.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 6c | 466.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 448.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed No | 3c | 441.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 51c | 418.22$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 5c | 393.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…9d2dbacked No | 11c | 382.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…5f89backed No | 8c | 367.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 11c | 365.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 7c | 349.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 9c | 299.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 17c | 274$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 251.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe177…781fbacked No | 8c | 157.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…5582backed No | 14c | 142.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked No | 11c | 100.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 78.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…3de4backed No | 17c | 69.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 24c | 61.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Yes | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 25c | 50.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…87d9backed Yes | 76c | 49.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 75c | 49.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…b4abbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5483backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…3ba8backed Yes | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.