Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6e384367079c316716325cb08697f96ccc90a1b165ee8e798b580b31b4313a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,459,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,489,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,459,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 515 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x753e…bd67backed Yes | 0c | 101,700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…2986backed Yes | 0c | 79,336$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…f795backed Yes | 2c | 57,516$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.84 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 1c | 44,802$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.72 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…3859backed Yes | 0c | 36,644$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…9d0dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 24,348$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 24,165$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Yes | 4c | 20,819$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.84 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 4c | 20,280$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.95 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 17,852$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…4882backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…727fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 6c | 13,721$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.38 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 1c | 11,100$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 0c | 10,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…513bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…d278backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…ce41backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 70c | 9,731$6,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.17 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…e507backed Yes | 1c | 8,890$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 6c | 8,321$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.06 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 8,045$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 62c | 7,908$4,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,023.28 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 47c | 7,850$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.61 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 49c | 7,609$3,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.29 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…c44fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093c…d0f2backed Yes | 3c | 7,584$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…3e5abacked Yes | 0c | 7,149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…008fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…baf4backed Yes | 41c | 6,535$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,425$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 56c | 5,631$3,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,169.28 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 5,468$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.32 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 46c | 5,239$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.56 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…f57cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,083$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 43c | 4,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…08e3backed Yes | 1c | 4,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e59…0a83backed Yes | 1c | 3,905$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,432$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed Yes | 1c | 3,246$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…488dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,222$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 12c | 3,196$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.12 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…2d75backed Yes | 1c | 3,111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +1,017.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 1c | 3,078$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…1153backed Yes | 1c | 3,062$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,006$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,851$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.46 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 2,729$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,402$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 49c | 2,286$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…0976backed Yes | 31c | 2,275$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…bc30backed Yes | 48c | 2,213$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 2,152$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.36 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed No | 70c | 2,110$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 66c | 2,092$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.51 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 2,089$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.57 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,083$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…e987backed Yes | 1c | 2,031$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5eb…262dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,017$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65b…e257backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f1…db00backed Yes | 59c | 1,958$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +95%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…d7e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,928$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 1,924$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.94 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 13c | 1,888$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.99 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18c…ecbdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,888$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 23c | 1,880$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.23 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 1c | 1,877$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,872$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 13c | 1,871$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.95 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 26c | 1,844$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.09 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…1b24backed Yes | 11c | 1,740$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,686$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.34 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 73c | 1,658$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.25 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,657$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.98 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 21c | 1,643$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.87 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 43c | 1,580$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…37fcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,570$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 40c | 1,508$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.42 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…5bcebacked Yes | 6c | 1,491$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 23c | 1,488$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.92 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…dbd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,397$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,388$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.99 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…f949backed Yes | 71c | 1,380$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…4c52backed Yes | 44c | 1,372$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 2c | 1,366$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…eb12backed No | 10c | 1,351$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +324.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 51c | 1,302$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.02 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,297$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 51c | 1,290$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…93cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…13a7backed No | 79c | 1,268$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes | 29c | 1,265$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.56 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.