TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,459,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,489,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,459,446 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 515 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x753e…bd67backed Yes0c101,700$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.72128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa76a…2986backed Yes0c79,336$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…f795backed Yes2c57,516$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.842466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes1c44,802$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.725626.8%15 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a39…3859backed Yes0c36,644$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.493218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ce…9d0dbacked Yes0c32,210$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes2c24,348$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…bfdebacked Yes1c24,165$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.89742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed Yes4c20,819$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.841822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes4c20,280$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.953616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c17,852$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+428.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cab…4882backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cea…727fbacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes6c13,721$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.387150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes1c11,100$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes0c10,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4550…513bbacked Yes0c10,132$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-56%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443e…8055backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7127…d278backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…ce41backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No70c9,731$6,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,874.178641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91bd…e507backed Yes1c8,890$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes6c8,321$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.0617414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes1c8,045$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.171657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No62c7,908$4,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.2812654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No47c7,850$3,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.6137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed No49c7,609$3,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.294057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2812…c44fbacked Yes1c7,600$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x093c…d0f2backed Yes3c7,584$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+89.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3509…3e5abacked Yes0c7,149$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d17…008fbacked Yes1c7,114$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8774…baf4backed Yes41c6,535$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+191.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes0c6,425$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.26130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes56c5,631$3,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.2816041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes29c5,468$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.3251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No46c5,239$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.5615338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde4c…f57cbacked Yes0c5,083$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Yes43c4,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad5…08e3backed Yes1c4,100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e59…0a83backed Yes1c3,905$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6712…467bbacked Yes1c3,432$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x899c…e884backed Yes1c3,246$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.29210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab8b…488dbacked Yes1c3,222$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…725abacked Yes12c3,196$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.122821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a7…2d75backed Yes1c3,111$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+1,017.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e40…fc98backed Yes1c3,078$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad0…1153backed Yes1c3,062$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes1c3,006$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-96.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes0c3,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes22c2,851$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.466825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes14c2,729$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0229129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x520c…c42dbacked Yes11c2,402$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No49c2,286$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.863246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2364…0976backed Yes31c2,275$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3148…bc30backed Yes48c2,213$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c2,152$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.3634432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6cb8…f154backed No70c2,110$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.792045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No66c2,092$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.5114827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes33c2,089$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.5758927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c2,083$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.831618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8e…e987backed Yes1c2,031$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5eb…262dbacked Yes1c2,017$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf65b…e257backed Yes38c2,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.331656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f1…db00backed Yes59c1,958$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+95%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec53…d7e2backed Yes3c1,928$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No71c1,924$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.9420749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No13c1,888$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.9915629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd18c…ecbdbacked Yes20c1,888$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes23c1,880$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.234216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed Yes1c1,877$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0e…06f9backed Yes1c1,872$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes13c1,871$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9518531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes26c1,844$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.0932243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf1…1b24backed Yes11c1,740$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes53c1,686$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.3436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No73c1,658$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.2538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes24c1,657$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.989028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d17…c3dabacked No21c1,643$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.87258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c1,600$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No43c1,580$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.782927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d9…37fcbacked Yes10c1,570$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.093333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes40c1,508$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.429530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9256…5bcebacked Yes6c1,491$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes23c1,488$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6255…dbd6backed Yes1c1,397$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes41c1,388$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.9929254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f86…f949backed Yes71c1,380$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.28560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…4c52backed Yes44c1,372$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes2c1,366$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.654242.9%18 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6734…eb12backed No10c1,351$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.35633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+324.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes51c1,302$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.022948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes8c1,297$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.88639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes51c1,290$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.94242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2506…93cabacked Yes1c1,280$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…13a7backed No79c1,268$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.491450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes29c1,265$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.565046%23 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.