Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6d00bae1234238bc9978040316062e56fc2849885379db1f207895fa94838a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,634 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 0c | 27,733$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 39c | 10,400$4,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,025.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 0c | 7,078$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 76c | 5,158$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.98 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,630$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 1,486$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.81 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 4c | 1,470$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 45c | 933.67$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.36 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 70c | 921$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 70c | 911$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed Yes | 7c | 700.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 36c | 679.02$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.85 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 30c | 676$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 30c | 650$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 30c | 650$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 60c | 560$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 531.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 4c | 448.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 67c | 446.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 45c | 416.53$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.91 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 397.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 394$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes | 3c | 384.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 364.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed Yes | 5c | 354.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 353.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 340.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 80c | 324.66$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 31c | 303.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.67 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 58c | 278.7$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 63c | 273.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked No | 47c | 253.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 51c | 236.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 8c | 232.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 63c | 230.31$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 222.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…f284backed Yes | 70c | 173.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked No | 70c | 144$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 49c | 143.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…d730backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 127.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…6a2abacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 72c | 111.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 109.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…6e71backed Yes | 70c | 95.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 31c | 93.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…51cdbacked Yes | 74c | 89.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…431abacked No | 46c | 75.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 22c | 72.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…935bbacked No | 73c | 68.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…ebfdbacked Yes | 44c | 66.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 65.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…6fc8backed Yes | 28c | 62.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 36c | 58.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 41c | 57.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…3528backed No | 68c | 56.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e8…3e0bbacked No | 73c | 54.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8af4backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed No | 72c | 48.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 46c | 42.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…05adbacked No | 48c | 42.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…e2b0backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 37c | 36.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked No | 72c | 34.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed No | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 75c | 26.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…bc08backed No | 60c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…08d2backed No | 72c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…7840backed Yes | 75c | 19.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…f985backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…05dcbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.