Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12ca289d1a4eb8209d6d3c61d94d2871f456634a5f49b43b5b373aa8d50a857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $552,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $642,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 9c | 226,153$19,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,831.28 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…0976backed Yes | 0c | 74,990$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,786$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 0c | 13,039$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 71c | 10,571$7,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 1c | 9,607$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 72c | 7,016$5,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.73 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4421backed Yes | 0c | 6,405$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,396$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,040$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 77c | 5,016$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,458$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 71c | 3,235$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.72 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,904$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,023$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +66%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,955$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 1,286$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,192$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 72c | 1,158$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.59 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 1,119$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.24 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 10c | 939.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 891.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…b13cbacked Yes | 67c | 831.76$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 12c | 756.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 41c | 651.2$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.64 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 79c | 650.68$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.77 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 76c | 629.72$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.51 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 73c | 600$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 592.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.59 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 72c | 583$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.21 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 36c | 554$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.56 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 32c | 547.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.38 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…9197backed No | 72c | 529.07$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 454.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 72c | 450.49$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 4c | 422.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…4eb8backed Yes | 15c | 412.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 51c | 409.59$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.52 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked No | 56c | 382.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes | 11c | 355.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed Yes | 5c | 342.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 30c | 313.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.91 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 67c | 300.89$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked No | 73c | 290.95$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…1a01backed Yes | 6c | 286.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 68c | 275$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 11c | 257.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 38c | 257.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 10c | 251.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 72c | 210.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 208.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed No | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 58c | 197.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 17c | 194.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 31c | 179.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6749…267abacked Yes | 22c | 156.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 38c | 156.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 19c | 154.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 23c | 140.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 48c | 139.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 138.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 8c | 133.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 131$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 61c | 125.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…a001backed Yes | 25c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 17c | 116.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 109.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 57c | 108.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…05adbacked No | 61c | 105.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 67c | 105.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 14c | 99.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 98.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 59c | 93.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 13c | 81.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 17c | 74.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…431abacked No | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 57c | 67.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…737bbacked Yes | 17c | 65.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 51c | 61.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…c64abacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…4044backed No | 66c | 49.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 30c | 46.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…dd93backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.