TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$552,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$642,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes9c226,153$19,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,831.283033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2364…0976backed Yes0c74,990$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272f…164fbacked Yes0c13,786$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+279.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes0c13,039$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.710428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No71c10,571$7,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.572944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes1c9,607$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.643616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No72c7,016$5,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.738452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d31…4421backed Yes0c6,405$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.811421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes0c6,396$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,040$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.915071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed No77c5,016$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.443748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011016.4%18 W · 92 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6712…467bbacked Yes2c3,458$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.06210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No71c3,235$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.7229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c2,904$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.111245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes1c2,023$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,955$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.67135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes1c1,286$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9274…734bbacked Yes21c1,192$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No72c1,158$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.5914854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No79c1,119$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2420749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes2c1,027$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes10c939.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7228438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c891.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.454928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb809…b13cbacked Yes67c831.76$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+70.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes12c756.32$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3612325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No41c651.2$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.6450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No79c650.68$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.7711257.1%64 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No76c629.72$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5116041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No73c600$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No27c592.59$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.5930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed No72c583$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.216952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No36c554$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.567439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No32c547.51$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.386445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b19…9197backed No72c529.07$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes17c454.25$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.19539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No72c450.49$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.525339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes4c422.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d92…4eb8backed Yes15c412.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked No51c409.59$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.523161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked No56c382.22$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.424951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes11c355.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16a…33a1backed Yes5c342.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No30c313.51$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.9113864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed No67c300.89$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.293231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-50.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked No73c290.95$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f4b…1a01backed Yes6c286.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No68c275$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7511329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes11c257.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes38c257.74$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.943839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes10c251.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.06639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No72c210.61$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.127354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes19c208.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565152.9%27 W · 24 L+16.4wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+138.8%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed No20c199.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9913138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed No58c197.73$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.938867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes17c194.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.931657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked No31c179.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.537517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6749…267abacked Yes22c156.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ff…8f40backed Yes38c156.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes19c154.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6910321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes23c140.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1614715%22 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No48c139.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3638247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c138.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes8c133.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.872282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes26c131$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.536056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes61c125.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7118833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5612…a001backed Yes25c118$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes17c116.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2812114%17 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x847c…9d31backed No59c110$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.86448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c109.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8434432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes57c108.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8432345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…05adbacked No61c105.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed No67c105.35$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.416144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes12c103$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.363636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+200.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7411418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5912330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed Yes14c99.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c98.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No59c93.01$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.016456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.196516.9%11 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…b3cabacked No13c81.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.311040%4 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+92.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes24c76.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0236634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.472825%7 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed Yes17c74.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.741942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x909f…431abacked No62c73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No57c67.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.316246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9d1…737bbacked Yes17c65.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No51c61.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.25964.4%38 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes19c58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2915751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+87.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e32…c64abacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…4044backed No66c49.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed Yes30c46.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.255056%28 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No40c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2720243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5fe4…dd93backed No35c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.