TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,120 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99ba…6391backed No1c2,135$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9810321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No1c2,089$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.459714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No24c1,767$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4617929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes47c1,716$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.482763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No8c1,699$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.994928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x381c…dae1backed No62c1,421$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.021030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes38c1,250$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7754100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+138%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7806…6594backed Yes70c1,246$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.841747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes75c1,054$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.8413138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf614…c345backed No62c1,025$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No18c892.24$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No35c850$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29615629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes38c783$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.461361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b2c…7756backed Yes79c777.15$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.622055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa810…4f90backed Yes63c642.28$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.58650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed No53c632$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes77c607.9$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8310428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed No53c575$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.651717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked Yes38c572$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.641154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked No53c519$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.072326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked No51c485.8$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes74c466.85$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7135652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b01…d086backed No12c428.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No9c404.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.152944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No35c399.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No19c361.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0216648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.55550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No60c350$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.515643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd431…9517backed Yes58c344.91$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.81855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes53c330.88$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.94539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No40c330.6$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6820749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked No23c310.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.476056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed No65c307$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.553756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b59…d12abacked Yes61c306.9$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No17c300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed No21c274$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.597243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No42c240.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No17c239.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7321333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6e…488dbacked Yes47c211.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.751435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x529a…7b60backed No19c210.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No22c209.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8714854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…eda0backed Yes78c206.21$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.043050%15 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No11c203.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2112638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No15c201.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.041323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No10c198.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8513950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No35c195.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No8c172.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0212616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c169.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6c…62c0backed Yes80c163.49$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.491643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No62c159$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.58425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No14c149.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.747722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked Yes64c144.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.765942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes65c139.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.091947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed No28c131.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.083528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d92…5f8ebacked No31c124$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes64c123.4$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.423616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15c5…78c4backed No11c119.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked No11c111.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c110.52$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed No12c108.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136319%12 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed No11c104.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.476752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109839.8%39 W · 59 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2428438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4f…4745backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658344.6%37 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x074f…6abfbacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes35c92.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.514151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x938c…8df4backed Yes61c88.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.43875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No26c86.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x847c…9d31backed No34c85.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.126448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes68c84.12$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811257.1%64 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed Yes39c81.73$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.985056%28 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No15c81.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3814715%22 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No28c80.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6413864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No18c80.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No20c79.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8336634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No20c74.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fe…5934backed Yes48c73.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+79.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes79c68.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5136035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked No65c64.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.111145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed No65c61.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.014740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed No20c61.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.316918.8%13 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecb…fb4dbacked Yes66c60.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x800e…4595backed Yes52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.692070%14 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+72.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No39c57.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5716433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f6f…706abacked No41c53.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1746…515fbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+29.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes56c41.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.265961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No32c40.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94629.7%6 W · 56 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x871f…5885backed No28c40.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9704…8e26backed No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No50c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5921751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No60c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.954942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.