TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb32…db85backed Yes78c8,376$6,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.6934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No17c7,300$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.7115643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No38c4,761$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.114355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed No1c4,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e7f…b882backed No3c3,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No1c3,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.210132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No18c3,309$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.319613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No41c3,307$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.6113246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked No1c2,939$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.151657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No14c2,482$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.212944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed No39c2,140$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8355549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7b9…504bbacked No3c1,778$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7806…6594backed Yes63c1,761$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.271747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes69c1,659$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.967150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed No17c1,594$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2761910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…05adbacked No23c1,231$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.911553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked No38c1,210$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.894546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No58c1,200$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.42352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No11c1,195$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.355123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No25c1,136$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.0713950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No11c1,105$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.67539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No22c1,100$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc88a…7e26backed No1c1,092$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed No17c1,058$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.652227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked No11c1,040$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.99639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked No66c750$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.655541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c7f…60ffbacked No20c749.33$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+51.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed No8c699.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.352218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+193.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ef…7695backed Yes73c681.73$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.731861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b6…a5e9backed No57c665.83$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.852259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No6c641.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8132243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No11c640.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.458248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe33…8ec3backed Yes75c626.84$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.042360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d3…0e90backed No33c618.7$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes75c613.38$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6814854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No10c550$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5315629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No24c548.04$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.957354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed No2c538.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104540%18 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes79c528.09$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7213255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No27c508.27$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63e3…f341backed No20c498.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010549.5%52 W · 53 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes75c495.14$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0414520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes41c461.31$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.18033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8085…b544backed No71c418.17$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No20c401.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.514942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No59c399.78$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4834234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No24c379.27$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0330649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No20c376.48$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9721333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked Yes48c367.37$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.375942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked No25c364.09$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.022227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No32c355.4$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3911329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked No48c342.05$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.253240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No10c307.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1721631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed No23c304.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.643748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a7e…eda0backed No5c288.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.913050%15 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No9c284.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.016061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed Yes42c277.46$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.773348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No9c265.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91629.7%6 W · 56 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.857857.7%45 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebbf…9789backed No5c232.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes47c213.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.361947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56c2…abcbbacked No11c202.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+261.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes42c202.01$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5128438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x581c…d9dabacked No10c200.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202015%3 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6216648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed No56c200$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.117440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed No10c191.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.876752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes28c190$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7311357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes27c178.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4513864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0xe593…8692backed No62c175$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.673259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes41c168.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2913518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked No26c160$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.764542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes65c156.31$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9921034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No24c156.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.514352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No24c156.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked No41c155.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.181361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63cc…d11bbacked No61c153.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec6…ca9cbacked No18c151.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No51c150.59$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4516433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No21c148$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.56246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes65c146.22$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9312328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No38c144.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.36456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked Yes53c141.11$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8110141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed No21c136.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.957243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No16c136.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2912023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9431…c484backed No31c135.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8903…0dc2backed Yes28c130$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.416836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x529a…7b60backed No75c128.95$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes45c128.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.945416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked No18c128.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.479920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes38c119.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.484626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc995…a944backed No15c115.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes54c111.82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.076056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes66c111.49$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3734432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x37de…fed5backed No43c110.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes80c106$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25813.8%8 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed No73c105$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.