Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdcd438bf3bd1b67a757c63f16f7c2bf05f29a67bc0a47840d50d9eb4a8c1ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 78c | 8,376$6,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.69 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 17c | 7,300$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.71 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 38c | 4,761$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed No | 1c | 4,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 3c | 3,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 1c | 3,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 18c | 3,309$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.31 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 41c | 3,307$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.61 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 1c | 2,939$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 14c | 2,482$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.21 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 39c | 2,140$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…504bbacked No | 3c | 1,778$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed Yes | 63c | 1,761$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 69c | 1,659$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.96 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed No | 17c | 1,594$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…05adbacked No | 23c | 1,231$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 38c | 1,210$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.89 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 58c | 1,200$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 11c | 1,195$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 25c | 1,136$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.07 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 11c | 1,105$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 22c | 1,100$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,092$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 17c | 1,058$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 11c | 1,040$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 66c | 750$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7f…60ffbacked No | 20c | 749.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 8c | 699.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ef…7695backed Yes | 73c | 681.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.73 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 57c | 665.83$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 641.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 11c | 640.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…8ec3backed Yes | 75c | 626.84$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d3…0e90backed No | 33c | 618.7$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 75c | 613.38$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 10c | 550$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 24c | 548.04$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 2c | 538.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 528.09$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 508.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 20c | 498.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 75c | 495.14$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 41c | 461.31$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…b544backed No | 71c | 418.17$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 20c | 401.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 399.78$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 24c | 379.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 20c | 376.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 48c | 367.37$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 25c | 364.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 32c | 355.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked No | 48c | 342.05$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 10c | 307.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 23c | 304.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…eda0backed No | 5c | 288.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 9c | 284.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Yes | 42c | 277.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 9c | 265.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…9789backed No | 5c | 232.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes | 47c | 213.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 11c | 202.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 42c | 202.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…d9dabacked No | 10c | 200.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed No | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 10c | 191.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 28c | 190$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.73 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 27c | 178.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 62c | 175$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 41c | 168.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 65c | 156.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 24c | 156.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 24c | 156.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…421abacked No | 41c | 155.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…d11bbacked No | 61c | 153.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…ca9cbacked No | 18c | 151.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 51c | 150.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 21c | 148$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 65c | 146.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 38c | 144.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 53c | 141.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 21c | 136.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 16c | 136.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…c484backed No | 31c | 135.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 28c | 130$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x529a…7b60backed No | 75c | 128.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 45c | 128.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked No | 18c | 128.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 38c | 119.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…a944backed No | 15c | 115.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 54c | 111.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 111.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…fed5backed No | 43c | 110.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed No | 73c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.