TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,045 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87a8…445cbacked No3c3,528$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No4c2,900$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes71c2,776$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.2334440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No2c2,430$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.34015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No4c2,350$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.53810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No3c2,019$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No3c1,800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked No4c1,253$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c1,240$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.84928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked No7c1,133$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.67267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No19c1,096$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.71539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No11c1,047$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6117929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No4c1,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364330.2%13 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+107.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes71c985.85$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.853033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No24c917.3$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0720243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c915.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4715625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125152.9%27 W · 24 L+16.4wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+138.8%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked No8c583.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.566056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13515629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes31c491.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.177243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No25c406.38$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c399.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed No26c384.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004035%14 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No7c308.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c299.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c299.96$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No24c291.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.076445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No38c279.26$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7429653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes24c279.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.24151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No43c249.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10815643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No8c248.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9312223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No66c240.48$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8514854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No45c239.27$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.826756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No42c226.51$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0916433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c202.92$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5234234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No42c201.45$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No66c200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1720749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.12927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes33c199.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9813138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c173.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0334432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No43c166.65$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.135961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Yes46c152.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.85529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed No56c149.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.993348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed No49c140.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.391241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847c…9d31backed No66c121.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.616448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes13c114$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ece…8e2fbacked Yes61c109.43$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.581560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked No49c102.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a60…a571backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No48c99.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No41c96.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5715751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes29c96.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4113864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No27c90.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No20c90.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2611329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed Yes59c84.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.895056%28 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2362…6fd5backed No48c83.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.323633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9635…6863backed Yes65c81.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x87b2…24ddbacked No42c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked Yes63c79.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1210141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes75c77.08$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5435652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No66c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.98344.6%37 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No44c61.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.112825%7 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No27c59.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked No52c57.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8de0…660abacked No28c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2c…7756backed No71c51.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.392055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…25f1backed No74c50.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.443836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.512638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked No29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes46c48.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1813444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes43c48.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4439621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xfc6c…62c0backed Yes42c47.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…cb8ebacked No44c45.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.854753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed No67c44.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.974740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed No42c44.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5312330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked Yes51c40.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.955942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No51c40.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.76342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No36c40.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9704…8e26backed No65c38.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd677…aa0ebacked No80c38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058b…b5ebbacked Yes56c35.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.921060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes58c35.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9110428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No42c35.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.093836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.412227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2488…c286backed Yes74c31.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.144141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaffb…c689backed No79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.73956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes48c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.193745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad42…5d73backed Yes70c28.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.626058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5197…3e68backed Yes48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6af…532dbacked Yes63c16.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.051747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.