TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes59c4,559$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.2917929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed No0c4,533$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked No6c4,213$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.17226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No11c3,871$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.631735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…13a7backed Yes80c2,629$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.051450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed No55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.975549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes68c1,547$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.4613518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No45c1,400$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.9915643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…5475backed No20c1,348$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.553119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No18c1,170$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4513950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No14c1,128$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104531.1%14 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes63c976$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.122454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No37c929$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.731926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-41.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaa7…2e3cbacked No17c848.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb148…bb0ebacked No39c837.2$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No32c715.19$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes75c639.96$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6914854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c592.93$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4858927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No26c537.19$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.945123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No37c504$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes63c457$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.091118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-68.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No33c452.14$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9834234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes40c439.15$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.347243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes48c405.72$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7221034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6838247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes58c398.72$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7214520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No21c369.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.56445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked No3c324.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6614940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes39c310.46$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.246038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed No5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26319%12 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…3d3abacked No16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…b544backed No40c248.51$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c235.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.291,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes45c222.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.493534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No7c219.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.612918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked No23c196.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.864542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked Yes40c191.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.635942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed No27c185.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No51c162.19$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3832345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked No62c160.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.814546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8903…0dc2backed Yes29c160$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.886836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No28c149$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.728040%32 W · 48 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes45c145.89$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2428438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No52c144$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2929254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No24c142.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1112542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No60c133.31$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No45c131.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.974942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Yes45c123.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.025529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…5f34backed No11c120.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe49…6828backed No30c116.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.035052%26 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.115416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked No42c110.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1110141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f1…55cebacked Yes60c110$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9221631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215761.4%35 W · 22 L+12.8wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+68.5%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes41c99.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes60c94.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0113255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c91.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7139621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No33c90.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6e…9ee5backed No18c86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes75c85.67$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.845813.8%8 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No28c81.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.67722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d2…3a22backed Yes38c79.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+177.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No56c78.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3116433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes59c75.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6414227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6fa…adafbacked No66c69.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked No59c67.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c5…1036backed No29c67.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes29c65.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.153542.9%15 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No22c62.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7321333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes73c59.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3731728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x01f3…9afbbacked No55c54.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes38c54.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.974626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes33c54.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes38c53.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.164845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes71c51.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes37c51.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1336035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…1a36backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes25c49.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9613138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c45.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3934432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes32c43.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.749714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b8…4af7backed Yes64c43.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.74057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes42c42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+135.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes75c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.326959.4%41 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a33…7302backed Yes79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e72…cc9cbacked No26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2488…c286backed No28c39.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.954141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No55c39.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4621751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8c…21aabacked No62c34.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.