TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$714,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$696,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $714,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f89…d6febacked Yes27c54,899$14,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,877.341747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes70c37,040$25,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,809.2648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes1c31,925$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0810417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes4c20,741$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.7117414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No73c19,520$14,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,347.844355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc63…427abacked No63c13,729$8,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,119.74520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa82…7dd0backed Yes0c13,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedba…9506backed Yes9c11,993$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.33119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes11c11,633$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.2915338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3106…23a8backed Yes3c11,296$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.093836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x857f…039fbacked Yes2c10,324$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601540%6 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No77c10,207$7,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.862944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No65c7,054$4,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.5119648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed Yes21c6,458$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.422927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No75c6,100$4,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.1815643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No79c5,927$4,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.8513950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…7b96backed Yes13c5,901$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7441250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes39c5,690$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.365149%25 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed No61c5,594$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.367150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8d70…72eebacked Yes68c5,373$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.911533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No19c5,338$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,318.630649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes4c5,323$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick23cpaid+279.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes19c4,464$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.379436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes5c4,139$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.753630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd73…f796backed Yes13c4,062$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes2c4,058$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.494734%16 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes12c3,962$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.75539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No38c3,800$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.5251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No43c3,797$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.99057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e7f…b882backed Yes12c3,723$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.59429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes15c3,670$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.112328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No39c3,403$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.2628734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No60c3,133$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.8938247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes8c3,113$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes26c2,929$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.6110428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No40c2,760$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.9313022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No49c2,564$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.7813246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Yes23c2,500$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.91020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes31c2,395$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.165933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c2,354$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.091618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e0…3182backed Yes5c2,295$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.51040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+163.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed Yes45c2,067$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.953638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0e…3165backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+210%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No46c1,954$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.949825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No37c1,946$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.268719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes16c1,939$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.1125339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed Yes67c1,939$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.027356.2%41 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc94b…7f85backed Yes24c1,930$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.661428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Yes10c1,900$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.91816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No74c1,868$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.0532243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7b9…504bbacked Yes21c1,865$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Yes26c1,864$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.778159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5092…86c3backed Yes63c1,712$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes68c1,696$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.7923839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7806…6594backed Yes57c1,684$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.931747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e3b…5475backed Yes13c1,624$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.363119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No60c1,582$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.3720749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b44…a091backed Yes3c1,571$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4370%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes1c1,519$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No72c1,420$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.2916648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed Yes12c1,415$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes10c1,370$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.761657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No44c1,369$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76018531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No34c1,360$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.823860.5%23 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+51.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked No26c1,343$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.154540%18 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes40c1,311$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.773315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45ac…e1a7backed Yes11c1,309$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No28c1,282$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.113864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes19c1,269$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3312023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes72c1,256$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.143161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b65…293ebacked Yes11c1,250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.83164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes2c1,242$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4733741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed No72c1,210$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.657350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a6…9c94backed Yes7c1,208$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.961435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes9c1,202$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.576725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes10c1,156$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.717929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked Yes20c1,151$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes12c1,130$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.791127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7336…94b8backed Yes7c1,068$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.71729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No67c1,064$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.129552.6%50 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked No75c1,021$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.24546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked No77c1,017$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.011145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29018738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes10c999.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.310132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes28c995.66$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.127140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed No54c980.89$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.336845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No78c961.7$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.3213255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes8c912.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4115434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes29c899.98$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5335921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes21c870.43$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.925930.5%18 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa2…f43dbacked Yes55c860.4$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.6wins-0.51per pick66cpaid-81%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked No45c841.8$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.155541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f1…55cebacked Yes15c839.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.62138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No51c829.25$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.0714854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed No23c799.33$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.286456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd960…92d4backed Yes54c789.22$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0454…ba0fbacked Yes73c745.83$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes12c745$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.881596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes37c729.6$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.6722927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed Yes10c710.91$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.921333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.