Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c4aba5a59b33313d41e9fe4f06d0005199bcb12b421083a9806e16a3e30d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,171,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,171,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 0c | 175,166$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.63 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…974bbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 47,746$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.55 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…41cfbacked No | 1c | 19,871$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 2c | 18,899$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 15,904$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…ed7bbacked No | 6c | 15,667$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 4c | 13,992$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.07 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…a801backed No | 4c | 13,119$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 15c | 12,449$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.02 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcae…efdabacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 2c | 10,798$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.47 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 10,595$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.54 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…6e6dbacked No | 5c | 10,158$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 3c | 8,885$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 2c | 8,505$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.22 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…e220backed No | 2c | 8,036$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 5,894$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 7c | 5,707$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.2 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…6dbabacked No | 4c | 4,938$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked No | 5c | 4,369$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 9c | 4,342$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.56 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 10c | 4,308$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…89b5backed No | 9c | 4,262$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 6c | 4,104$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 5c | 4,053$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…9197backed No | 3c | 4,050$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 3,909$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 6c | 3,894$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 5c | 3,796$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…06dcbacked No | 3c | 3,767$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked No | 7c | 3,752$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 4c | 3,747$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 3,717$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 4c | 3,600$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 4c | 3,460$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed No | 1c | 3,372$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 3,325$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked No | 6c | 3,055$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 3c | 3,008$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 2c | 2,899$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed No | 0c | 2,680$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 6c | 2,664$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 3c | 2,664$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…e6bebacked No | 1c | 2,654$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…ad36backed No | 2c | 2,618$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed No | 7c | 2,611$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 2,400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…0d70backed No | 5c | 2,393$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8c…47c0backed No | 2c | 2,340$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0075…87febacked No | 2c | 2,183$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,127$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 5c | 2,046$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes | 29c | 2,000$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed No | 4c | 1,907$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 6c | 1,800$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 11c | 1,750$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 4c | 1,701$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…08c7backed No | 3c | 1,603$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 15c | 1,500$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 1c | 1,485$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 6c | 1,420$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 1,379$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 4c | 1,360$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 7c | 1,350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…3f51backed No | 12c | 1,333$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 77c | 1,332$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.45 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 4c | 1,332$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…4e3ebacked No | 4c | 1,234$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…497fbacked No | 3c | 1,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 5c | 1,195$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked No | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 70c | 1,144$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.83 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 1,142$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.37 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 4c | 1,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 5c | 1,091$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 1,069$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 5c | 1,063$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 4c | 1,013$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…1996backed No | 4c | 1,011$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed No | 7c | 996.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 19c | 971.56$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 24c | 951.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.13 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed No | 6c | 940.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 6c | 904.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 12c | 887.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f125backed No | 5c | 883.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 66c | 878.43$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.45 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 8c | 850$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed No | 3c | 850$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…00dabacked Yes | 59c | 843.87$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.