TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,171,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,171,991 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d05…6320backed No0c175,166$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.6310417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdd61…974bbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c47,746$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.5517414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa994…41cfbacked No1c19,871$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No2c18,899$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.782944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c15,904$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.714769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e33…ed7bbacked No6c15,667$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No4c13,992$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.0751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e13…a801backed No4c13,119$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.341136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No15c12,449$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.0236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbcae…efdabacked No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked No2c10,798$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.477140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No6c10,595$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5432243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab81…6e6dbacked No5c10,158$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.31850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed No1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6712…467bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No3c8,885$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5924712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No2c8,505$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2218531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b33…e220backed No2c8,036$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.58450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+53.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c5,894$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.055071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No7c5,707$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.228734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c6…6dbabacked No4c4,938$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked No5c4,369$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No9c4,342$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5611222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No10c4,308$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.211020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba34…89b5backed No9c4,262$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No6c4,104$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9319428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No5c4,053$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.71596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b19…9197backed No3c4,050$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.87540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c3,909$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.25147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-91.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No6c3,894$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.48339.8%33 W · 50 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No5c3,796$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.999057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x627f…06dcbacked No3c3,767$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x074f…6abfbacked No7c3,752$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.932040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked No4c3,747$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.63395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c3,717$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.811,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No4c3,600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed No4c3,460$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.85910.2%6 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed No1c3,372$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.53450%17 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No5c3,325$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5912023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked No6c3,055$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.131145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No3c3,008$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5b30backed No2c2,899$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-81.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a6…9c94backed No0c2,680$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No6c2,664$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.412927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked No3c2,664$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.481657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfab6…e6bebacked No1c2,654$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.544027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca7…ad36backed No2c2,618$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc22…5738backed No7c2,611$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.241118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+62.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c2,400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.377135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf435…0d70backed No5c2,393$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c8c…47c0backed No2c2,340$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.438936%32 W · 57 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0075…87febacked No2c2,183$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No1c2,127$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.859728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No5c2,046$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.553435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes29c2,000$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a9…5976backed No4c1,907$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.546443.8%28 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed No6c1,800$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.146456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3f0…b3cabacked No11c1,750$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1911040%4 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+92.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No4c1,701$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8219648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37be…08c7backed No3c1,603$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked No15c1,500$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No1c1,485$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4915434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No6c1,420$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.472927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02fd…c406backed No7c1,400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No5c1,379$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.694136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No4c1,360$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.478818.2%16 W · 72 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No7c1,350$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.54015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…3f51backed No12c1,333$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes77c1,332$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4522333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No4c1,332$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65935.6%21 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a6b…4e3ebacked No4c1,234$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…497fbacked No3c1,200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked No5c1,195$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3821537.7%81 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked No2c1,176$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes70c1,144$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.836752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No24c1,142$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.3789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No4c1,111$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.536936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No5c1,091$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4825843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c1,069$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.174928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No5c1,063$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9216041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked No4c1,013$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.973537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cea…1996backed No4c1,011$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.671421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed No4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed No7c996.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.673426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No19c971.56$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No24c951.99$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1320243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed No6c940.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.563336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c916$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No6c904.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3425339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b6…a5e9backed No12c887.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.452259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed No5c883.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.144235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No66c878.43$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.4528438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No8c850$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed No3c850$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.26319%12 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e3…00dabacked Yes59c843.87$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.371764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.