Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4eea1f79d15ecafb94c3fa02ff397e9357fb47a2699894a7a53595dc56a29a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,129 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 5,362$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 4,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 2c | 3,367$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 2,481$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.31 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 2c | 2,230$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 1,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 1c | 1,839$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 3c | 1,755$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 3c | 1,687$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,609$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 4c | 1,089$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 22c | 731.52$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.59 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed No | 4c | 720.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 3c | 714.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 30c | 691.92$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 58c | 560$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 41c | 361.81$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 21c | 312.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 63c | 287.59$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…fc4bbacked Yes | 65c | 286.31$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…e2b0backed No | 16c | 240.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 229.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 228.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 73c | 190.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…bea7backed Yes | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 33c | 181.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…ee8abacked Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…2f19backed Yes | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 136.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba30…ca1cbacked Yes | 80c | 125.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 46c | 124.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 41c | 100.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…a001backed Yes | 55c | 99.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 58c | 97.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdced…48a2backed No | 46c | 78.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 66c | 75.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…8416backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…51cdbacked Yes | 70c | 69.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed Yes | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…31edbacked Yes | 66c | 59.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 23c | 57.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…a5d7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…3b6cbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…803abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…1489backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 55c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 22.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 50c | 20.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…aae5backed No | 69c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes | 75c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Yes | 65c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.